New Delhi: Last year, India redrew constituencies based on latest population data, giving cities more representation simply because more people lived in them. Now, lessons from Karnataka, the first state that went to the polls after the electoral map was redrawn based on the 2001 census, indicate that Indian parties, which have traditionally campaigned on rural issues, will have to include urban concerns as well to win elections.
The number of assembly seats in Karnataka’s capital Bangalore went up to 28 from 16 after the delimitation and the Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, won 17 of them (it had won six seats in the previous elections). The BJP went on to win in the state. Urban voters may well call the shots in elections to key states later this year and to the Lok Sabha elections in 2009.
The Delimitation Effect (Graphic)
Increasing urbanization, migration and the recent delimitation have made the urban voter more crucial. Of the nine states that Mint compared across the country, the number of assembly seats in urban areas have increased in five (in the case of Maharashtra, Mumbai’s suburbs have gained at the cost of India’s commercial capital itself). At least five of these nine will go to the polls soon.
New equation: Cauvery junction in Bangalore. Karnataka has already got a taste of the altered politics based on the changing rural-urban dynamics after the recent polls in the state. Increasing urbanization, migration and the recent delimitation have made the urban voter more crucial than ever before. (Hemant Mishra / Mint)
BJP’s Karnataka leaders agree that an increased number of seats in urban areas did help the party win the elections since it modified its campaign to suit the new dynamics. “We designed a campaign specific to cities and had a vision document for each city. We anyway have a strong worker base in urban areas. All this helped us in winning the elections,” says a senior state BJP leader, who asked not to be identified.
With the Delimitation Commission of India suggesting that the exercise be undertaken every decade, the urban voter will soon likely overtake rural voters in importance. India’s urban population is expected to account for 55% of the country’s total population in 2050, according to a 2007 United Nations report.
Increased migration is a significant factor leading to rising urban population and, consequently, the greater role of cities in electoral politics. A recent study by D.P. Singh, an associate professor at the Mumbai-based Tata Institute of Social Sciences, found that between 1991 and 2001, migration contributed to 21% of the population growth of cities and towns.
Currently, an estimated 28% of the country’s people live in cities. After delimitation, the number of urban Lok Sabha seats will increase from around 70 to at least 100. This means that before delimitation, 28% of the country’s population translated into 13% representation in the Lok Sabha.