Log has written
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2009

Indian markets have witnessed one of the sharpest declines in the past week due to vicious cycle of unwinding of leveraged positions, coupled with liquidity crisis, resulting from $30 billion being locked in IPOs (initial public offerings). We firmly believe that the sharp declines in stock prices are not a reflection of any significant adverse impact on fundamentals and provide a very attractive opportunity to buy. The pain resulting from unwinding of leveraged positions seems to be completely behind us.

Real estate, metals, power and oil and gas are the key sectors that have witnessed one of the sharpest declines in the past week. We believe that the stocks from these sectors that have been significantly battered down should be bought into as they are likely to offer one of the highest gains on rebound. We reiterate our Sensex target of 25,500 by December 2008.

Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd, Sobha Developers Ltd, Lanco Infratech Ltd, Ashok Leyland Ltd, Tata Tea Ltd, Tata Steel Ltd, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd, Reliance Communications Ltd and Sesa Goa Ltd are some of the key stocks in our universe that have been fallen by over 20% in the last week, offering an upside of over 50% based on their fair value.

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Thomas Said:


They have a herd mentality.I think the basic fault is with how results are gauged-they are forced to outperform on a qoq basis thereby having to do a lot of trading.Also they are unwilling to downgrade companies which are their clients in other businesses.The best fund would be a asset class diversified one which is not available in India.As Marc Faber said a stock broker is always bullish on stocks(it may be down now but the long term growth story...what is long term depends on how screwed up things are).The pay structure based on yearly bonuses also encourage short term outlooks.There is also excessive qoq number crunching.Without perspective numbers are meaningless but the focus on each q makes them myopic.My point is unless these factors are changed this will continue.But this is unlikely since investors chase short term out performance.In the end all ye suckers out there,there is no easy way out-dust that copy of security analysis and do your own due diligence.If you don't recognize the reference you shouldn't be investing.

Posted On 7/4/2008 6:04:41 PM
Prem Said:


isnt it naive to assume that Brokerages would be a) correct all the time & b) professional enough to bring out reports that benefit the investor community at large. Their reputation is obviously at stake but the forecast about the future could be compared to crystal gazing / fortune telling, becasue if they are as good as they are , wouldnt the brokerages be the richest people around?

Posted On 7/4/2008 7:13:34 PM