“GCM models are still not very reliable to predict Indian monsoon and rainfall trends, but a vital test for any model would be to run it backwards and check how well it has agreed with historical records,” said Rajeevan. “That’s where this data would be useful.”
Not everyone is convinced.
Ajit Tyagi, director general at IMD, said that though trend analyses of Indian monsoon and rainfall have been done before, their use is limited. “It’s easy to look back in the past and look for patterns, but very hard to judge when those patterns cease to be.”
Still, he said, the department “will be looking into this report closely”.
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