I think they miscalculated the number of countries trying to block India from the NSG waiver. The combined population of the countries trying to block India was the size of New Delhi. These are fairly small countries and what was put to them was that you’re blocking a relationship between a country of a billion-plus people for what purpose. I think the Chinese misjudged that and they paid a diplomatic price for it.
And the Americans went out of their way to tell the Chinese that?
Yes, I am no friend of the Bush administration but I give them full credit—the Indians would say full marks—for actually sticking to this deal and for putting a lot of diplomatic and political muscle behind it. We don’t benefit that much from it, we’re unlikely to be selling India nuclear energy, there’s primarily strategic logic behind it to do away with the bad past history and start on a new footing.
What does this do for India? India becomes a de facto nuclear weapons power?
De facto yes...
Not de jure?
We can’t do that under the terms of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) which defines a nuclear state in a particular way. But in every other way, in terms of buying uranium India comes out way ahead. This deal benefits the US also but not quite as much as India does.
Seems to some of us here that the gap between the Indian elite and the Democrats is much wider than between the Indian elite and the Republicans…
The Democrats were more influenced by non-proliferation considerations, and for a number of years, this steered US policy towards South Asia, especially after the nuclear tests of 1998. But before that the Democrats were very pro-India, it was the Republicans that were hostile to India. The Republicans thought India was a socialist state, they didn’t like Nehru, they didn’t like Krishna Menon. It’s flip now.
Now that the non-proliferation issue is behind us, I would say one remarkable thing about elite public opinion in the US is that everybody likes India. Whether they are for the deal or against the deal, they like India as a state. I think that is a major accomplishment of India and it puts a new spin on our relationship. But here, for example, the Left parties are systemically anti-American, whereas in the US even those who are against the nuclear deal are very pro-India.
If senator Barack Obama comes to power and becomes the next president, you think there will be some rollback?
Yes, because the relationship is being powered by economic ties. That is the bottomline. There are some people in the Obama group that did not like the nuclear deal…(but) would like to see India do more for global arms control. I would agree with that position myself. I favour the deal but I think India has to do more in terms with dealing with the proliferation issue. I wouldn’t limit India’s nuclear military programme, but they must be a partner in this logic.
In the past, there was some preaching on Kashmir. Do you think that has changed and that both India and the US are on the same page as Kashmir?