On 23 July, a day after the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government pulled off a win in the crucial trust vote, political commentaries were writing epitaphs of the Left parties, whose exit from the government over differences on the India-US civil nuclear deal had precipitated the crisis in the first place.
Ilustration: Jayachandran / Mint
Similarly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had pushed hard for the defeat of the UPA under the leadership of L.K. Advani, looked lost. The Congress party, on the other hand, having showcased its heir apparent, Rahul Gandhi, in the debate that preceded the trust vote, seemed to have acquired fresh legs.
Inevitably, the blame for the Left’s loss was laid at the door of Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPM, general secretary Prakash Karat, who had steadfastly declined to climb down from a position that threatened the UPA’s survival and looked like it would strengthen the electoral prospects of the BJP.
However, with less than three months to go for the general election, the circumstances stand substantially transformed. The country has undergone a dramatic shift in the economic outlook largely in sync with what is happening in the rest of the world. Layoffs are on the rise and a lot of people who rode the economic boom are beginning to hurt. The terror strikes, 13 in the seven months ended in December, has only made the outlook murkier.
And unlike ever before, the elections to the 15th Lok Sabha throw up some unique circumstances. Delimitation has recognized the growing population in urban India. As a result, a little less than one in five members of the Lok Sabha will represent an urban constituency, a significant jump from the past.
According to IIMS Dataworks, an associate of research and consulting firm Invest India Economic Foundation Pvt. Ltd, 40% of the voters will be below the age of 30. Not only do they have aspirations, but they are demanding and are conscious of their rights.
Further, this election is being contested in the context of an unprecedented growth in electronic and new media, largely concentrated in urban areas. India had about 347 million mobile phone users (including fixed wireless phone) at the end of December, and according to a study done by Crayons, the ad agency that will manage the advertising strategy for the Congress, nearly 60% of the mobile users are first-time voters; the country also has around 49 million Internet users. Clearly, control of airwaves and mastery of new media would be critical in niche constituencies.