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SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2009 2:13 PM IST

India lived under the long shadow of twin deficits at the end of its economic boom. Growing fiscal and current account deficits were warning signals that the country was living beyond its means.

The high current account deficit became a clear and present danger to economic stability after the global financial crisis worsened in September. Foreign investors pulled money out of India, sending the rupee into a tailspin and local interest rates sky high. India reported a balance of payments deficit for the October-December quarter, the first in seven years. In effect, forex inflows were not enough to fund the excess of imports over exports of goods and services.

Things have stabilized since. The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday reported current account and balance of payments surpluses. That is good news in volatile times.

The fiscal gap continues to be a worry. The government said on Tuesday that the fiscal deficit for April and May was already 27.3% of the full-year target. We hope a clear plan for fiscal repair is unveiled in the budget due on Monday.

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Zahid Said:


In the 11th five year plan document it was projected that by year 2008-09, to meet the proposed investment needs around 50% debt receipts worth Rs. 63,207 crores would be mobilized as domestic banks credit. However the figures of revised budget estimates for 2008-09 states that market loans (amounting Rs. 261,972 Crores) are over 80% of total debt receipt by the GoI. The increased flow of subsidized bank loans to GoI for financing fiscal deficit is in fact creating problems for economic growth of the economy because it is creating hurdles for banks to increase the supply of cheaper credit to the private sector at a time when they needs it to minimize their output cost and combat recession. It is observed that beside fall in international demands, the availability of equity finance or cheaper credit sources have affected the business confidence. The equity financial sources are drying up after reversal of capital flows from stock markets due to global meltdown. External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Export Credits have also declined. This all had affected the growth rate for industries.

Posted On 7/1/2009 9:30:14 PM