Lucknow/Ayodhya: The record turnout in the first two phases of assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, normally symptomatic of anti-incumbency, could spell trouble for the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), especially if the trend, driven by an impressive participation of youth, endures in the remaining five phases and the BSP is unable to come up with a counter-offensive.
The nine districts in India’s most populous state that went to polls on 11 February saw a 60% voter participation and the first phase in 10 districts on 8 February recorded a 62-64% turnout.
In the previous assembly elections in 2007, in which Mayawati-led BSP secured a majority, only 45.96% of the voters cast their ballots. The highest voter turnout for state polls in the past three decades was 55.73% in 1996.
Analysts said young voters mainly contributed to this unusually large turnout, which was spurred by awareness spread by the Election Commission, non-governmental organizations and the media. But both political leaders and analysts were not sure which party will gain the most from this.
Vote for change: Young voters queue up at a polling station in Gorakhpur during the second phase of elections. Photo: Reuters
One-third of the voters in Uttar Pradesh, which is in the process of electing 403 lawmakers, are less than 39 years old, according to an official on election duty in the state.
“Approximately 4.5 crore voters out of 12.5 crore voters are in the age group of 18-39,” he said on condition of anonymity. “In less than two years, the EC (Election Commission) has enrolled 1.4 crore additional voters. It is safe to assume that most of them belong to the age group of 18-21.”
“It is high time that the youngsters should decide what kind of a government and a leader we have,” said Prakash Kumar, a 23-year-old street vendor in Ayodhya. “Uttar Pradesh needs a leader with a vision for this state’s future, someone who can bring thorough changes to the educational system and governance.”
Uttar Pradesh is also considered politically crucial as it sends 80 members out of 545 to the Lok Sabha. The assembly elections will end on 3 March. The results will be declared on 6 March, along with results in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur, where polling has ended, and Goa, where ballots will be cast on 3 March.
“The high turnout (in Uttar Pradesh) is mostly in backward areas and the least developed regions, which shows there is a craving and desire for change and development,” said Badri Narayan, who teaches at GB Pant Social Science Institute, Allahabad. “Secondly, the youth participation may be because of the high-pitched campaign by youth leaders, Akhilesh Yadav (of the Samajwadi Party) and Rahul Gandhi (of the Congress). The campaign by media urging people to come out and vote must have influenced (the large turnout).”
Both Yadav and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Arun Jaitley had said in separate interviews to Mint before the first phase of elections that there was an anti-incumbency wave in Uttar Pradesh.
Sudhir Panwar, a Lucknow-based political analyst, partly agreed with Narayan and said the higher turnout was an outcome of a combination of developments in the recent past.
“I don’t think its an indication only for change. It’s the result of both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While the young voters are voting for progressive politics—good governance and clean politics—the old voters prefer status quo of polity and anti-incumbency,” Panwar said. “It is also the culmination of various developments—the Election Commission’s awareness campaign, (anti-graft activist) Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption campaign and the political campaign for change.”
Although political leaders are confused about the outcome of the unprecedented voter turnout, some observers said it could benefit the major national parties—the BJP and the Congress, which leads the ruling United Progressive Alliance government in New Delhi.
“The young people like us should vote for a party which has a vision for the state as well as the country. I will vote for the BJP as it is a national party and is leading a campaign against corruption,” said Megha Maurya, a student at Lucknow University. “The BSP has failed to deliver. The Congress cannot claim to be clean as they are involved in so many scams. I will vote against corruption and vote for development.”
The Congress is confused whether the presence of young voters would go in its favour or reflect the popular feeling against corruption and price rise, according to one of its general secretaries, who requested anonymity.
The Congress and the SP may benefit from the high-voter participation, Narayan said. “But it’s still debatable that who would get advantage of the anti-establishment feelings,” he added.
Although two SP leaders expressed optimism that the desire for change may give them a clear majority, they admitted that the picture is not clear yet. The leaders declined to be named.
appu.s@livemint.com