New Delhi: Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) is likely to see a 75% jump in natural gas production in the next five years when the state-owned company will bring its Krishna Godavari basin gas finds into production.
ONGC’s natural gas output is projected to rise from about 52 million standard cubic meters per day during the current year to 91.09 mmscmd by 2016-17, according to the gas supply projections made by the oil ministry.
This includes 28.72 mmscmd from block KG-DWN-98/2 which sits next to Reliance Industries’ prolific KG-D6 fields off the east coast.
As per the ministry’s projections, the production rate is contingent upon upstream regulator, the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) approving commerciality of finds ONGC has made in the block.
The Declaration of Commerciality (DoC), a prerequisite before gas finds can be brought to production, are pending with the regulator more than that a year now.
Without the KG basin production, ONGC’s output in 2016-17 would be 62.37 mmscmd, it said.
Overall, the nation’s gas production would rise from about 120 mmscmd currently to 180.56 mmscmd in 2016-17 (without taking into consideration ONGC’s KG block output).
The country’s natural gas demand during this period would more than double to 473 mmscmd by 2016-17 with most of incremental demand coming from power plants.
As per the projections made by oil ministry for the 12th five year plan (2012-13 to 2016-17), current gas demand of 189 mmscmd is likely to rise to 473 mmscmd.
“This represents a compounded annual growth rate of 7.5% over the two-plan (10 years) periods,” it said.
Of the 473 mmscmd demand, 207 mmscmd would be from power and another 113 mmscmd from fertiliser plants. Power plant would need 307 mmscmd by 2021-22, while fertiliser units may not see any incremental demand during 2017 to 2022.
Domestic natural gas production currently is about 120 mmscmd and another 46.3 mmscmd is imported in form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The total availability of 164 mmscmd is short of current demand of 189 mmscmd.
Besides ONGC’s 52 mmscmd, Reliance Industries produces under 42 mmscmd of gas from its prolific KG-D6 fields. Oil India produces 6.6 mmscmd and another 11.9 mmscmd comes from western offshore Panna/Mukta and Tapti fields.
Of the current supplies, 61.4 mmscmd goes to power sector while fertiliser plants consume 37.7 mmscmd. The remaining is used by city gas projects, refineries, petrochemical plants and sponge iron units.