Mnagement Idea | Does potential score over experience?
Potential is fraught with uncertainty by its very nature: An individual with high potential might achieve greatness but very well might not, say researchers
Have you wondered how Arvind Kejriwal won such a sweeping victory in the recent Delhi polls, even though neither he nor his party had any significant experience in running a government?
Researchers Zakary L. Tormala and Jayson S. Jia of Stanford University, and Michael I. Norton of Harvard Business School have an answer to that in their paper The Preference for Potential, which was published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology.
Logically, you may expect people to endorse others by highlighting their personal achievements. “Evidence of achievement should reduce uncertainty about a person’s talent and boost confidence about his or her future success or high performance. And potential, on the other hand, is fraught with uncertainty by its very nature: An individual with high potential might achieve greatness but very well might not," say the researchers.
Since potential leaves more room for doubt about a person’s true talent or future outcomes, why would potential be favoured over achievement? The authors say potential is more interesting than achievement precisely because it is less certain and more engaging.
“The uncertainty surrounding individuals with high potential makes them more interesting, which draws people in, increases processing, and can have positive downstream effects on judgement," they add.
In an experiment, the researchers tested the effect of this in a hiring context in which people naturally might value experience.
Two hypothetical job candidates were presented, the candidates’ backgrounds and qualifications were identical except that one had two years of relevant experience and scored highly on a test of leadership achievement, whereas the other had zero years of experience, but scored highly on a test of leadership. Not only did participants pick potential over achievement, they believed the applicant in the potential condition would perform better in five years than a candidate who had achievements under his belt.
However, the researchers also pointed out that having a bad performance history but good potential, is unlikely to outweigh having a good performance history.
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