London: The fall in 2009 global advertising spend will be almost twice as much as forecast, with the US and Russia hit hard, a leading media network said on Thursday, although it saw a return to slight growth in 2010. Carat, owned by the Aegis Group Plc, revised its forecast to a fall of 9.8% from an earlier prediction of a 5.8% fall due to “significant reductions” in spend across nearly all regions.
According to the report, among the worst hit markets in 2009 will be the US, set to fall 16.3%, Britain down 11.7%, Italy down 12.4%, Spain down 19% and the Nordics down 19.2%.
Russia, however, is expected to fall 21.9%.
China is the only country forecast to show growth in 2009, up 6.9%, before global advertising trends start to recover in 2010, with a forecast of 1% global growth.
“These significant revisions are not unexpected in the context of the recent volatility of the market, and represent a cautious attitude towards ad pend this year, most significantly in the US and Europe,” said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media. “China remains the most resilient of the major economies, and we have revised our estimate upwards since March to 6.9% for 2009. However, even in China, we have noticed advertisers proceeding cautiously, and adjusting spend on a quarterly basis.”
China was forecast to show growth of 9% in 2010, Russia up 1.5% and Britain up 1.4%, while the US will contract 2.6%.
Of the different outlets, newspapers and magazines are set to be the hardest hit in 2009, down around 17%, while radio is set to fall 12.4% and TV down 6.3%. Online advertising in display and paid search is set to show growth of 1%.