The India Meteorological Department is on Tuesday expected to announce a crucial update to the monsoon forecast it had made in April, when it indicated that rainfall will be 98% of the 50-year average. This revision will indicate the department’s expectations of how the monsoon is expected to pan out over July and August, the two most crucial monsoon months for India’s predominantly rain-fed agriculture. June rainfall, as the map indicates, has been adequate, well distributed and timely. However, there have been historical instances of healthy rainfall in June preceding a disastrous, near-drought July, though Met department officials say global meteorological conditions don’t yet indicate any adversity. With food price inflation hovering near 9% and fears that economic growth may be lower than projected, the Met department’s numbers will send a key, preparatory signal to policymakers.
Also See | Rain Check (PDF)