New Delhi: The next six months of the year are likely to see “sharper slowdown” in the country’s export, which has already entered into the negative zone in the backdrop of slump in demand in the developed economies, a global credit rating agency said on Friday.
“A sharper slowdown in exports is expected in the first half of 2009, putting more downward pressure on the trade balance,” Moody’s said.
The country’s exports, which has posted a robust 30.9% growth in the initial six months of 2008-09, contracted by 12.1% in October, for the first time in last five years.
The trend continued in November also, when exports fell to $11.5 billion, from $12.7 billion a year ago, leaving a trade deficit of $10.1 billion, slightly lower than $10.5 billion a month ago.
The agency further said that imports would also fall during the first six months of 2009 on account of higher spending on infrastructure.
“Both imports and exports are expected to moderate further in the first half of 2009, but inbound shipments may slow down at a milder pace because of continued infrastructure development, especially in the lead up to the 2010 Commonwealth Games,” the agency said.
Imports in October 2008 had grown by 10.6% but slipped to 6.1% in the following month.
During April-November period India’s exports was $119.3 billion.
Meanwhile, Moody’s also said India’s economy, which moderated from 7.9% in the June quarter to 7.6% in the September would see a further downward movement.
“The economy is likely to decelerate more notably in the final quarter of the current fiscal,” it said in a statement.
Prime Minister’s Advisory Council has projected country’s GDP growth at 7.7% for the fiscal.