The butterfly effect is a metaphor for explaining chaotic situations: a lepidopteran flutters its wings over Atlantic Ocean and the result is a storm over Japan.
Something similar is happening in Kabul as lightweights in Washington raise a storm over Barack Obama’s plan to increase troop levels in Afghanistan.
Influential Democrats such as speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, and chairman of the Senate armed services committee, Carl Levin, have openly voiced scepticism over the increase in troops. Fighting the war in Afghanistan is not a priority when a battle on health insurance for all occupies centre stage.
This will pave the way for a Western retreat from Kabul. It may take time, but if more US troops don’t come, the Europeans will get the signal: Let’s get out. When that happens, it will spell trouble for India. Without Western military props, a non-Taliban and non-Pakistan supported regime can’t survive in Kabul. That will help Pakistan reignite terrorism in Kashmir.