BackUN joins Moody’s, IMF in projecting 7% plus growth rate for India in current fiscal
Here are some of the recent forecasts on Indian growth numbers by international agencies
Premium
New Delhi: While the government remains positive on the Indian growth story, various foreign rating agencies and banks have corroborated it by forecasting a 7%-plus growth rate for the current financial year. They have also said that the pace of growth will continue in the coming year. The latest to do so is the UN whose mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects was released on Wednesday. It says India is expected to grow by 7.6% this year and 7.7% next year.
Earlier, finance minister Arun Jaitley had said India’s economy grew an estimated 7-7.5% last fiscal year and will keep growing this year, but the government will have to invest more in agriculture to keep up the momentum. Jaitley added that India had the potential to clock double-digit growth.
While the Confederation of Indian Industries projected that the Indian economy would grow 7.8-8.2% in the current fiscal year, economists polled by Reuters last month pegged India’s 2014-15 economic growth at 7.4% and 7.8% for the current year in terms of standard gross domestic product (GDP).
Here are some of the recent forecasts on Indian growth numbers by international agencies.
India’s growth to surpass China’s: UN
India’s economic growth will surpass that of China both this year and the next, according to the mid-year update of the UN World Economic Situation and Prospects released on Wednesday. India is expected to grow by 7.6% this year and 7.7% next year, while China’s strong growth of recent years continues to settle at 7% this year and 6.8%, according to an Associated Press report.
India to grow at fastest pace among G20 countries: Moody’s
Rating agency Moody’s said on 12 May that India will grow at a strong pace of 7.5% in 2015-16, the highest among G20 economies, helped by the reforms drive and lower oil prices. G20 is a group of 20 developing and industrialised economies, which accounts for 85% of the world’s economic output.
“Lower oil prices will reinforce gradual growth-enhancing reforms to support robust economic activity over the forecast period," Moody’s Investors Service said, in a report. Further, the ‘Make-in-India’ campaign to boost domestic manufacturing and other reforms measures would bring in higher investment and boost growth, the rating agency said.
India bright spot in Asia: IMF
With higher political certainty, improved business confidence, reduced external vulnerabilities and lower commodity prices, real GDP is forecast to rise 7.2% in fiscal year 2014-15, accelerating to 7.5% in 2015-16, the International Monetary Fund said on 7 May.
But though India’s near-term growth outlook has improved, its medium-term prospects remain constrained by long-standing structural weakness, it added, while describing India as a new bright spot in Asia.
India to keep growing: HSBC
India’s growth is likely to pick up pace with the GDP expanding by 7.8% during this fiscal year and higher next year on the back of improved urban consumption, according to an HSBC report.
“We expect actual GDP growth to pick-up pace gradually from 7.4% in FY15 to 7.8% and 8.3% over the next two years on the back of improved urban consumption as lower inflation improves purchasing power, and higher public investment, which we hope will crowd in the private sector over time," HSBC said, as reported by NDTV on 5 May.
India to grow at 8% on back of reforms: Fitch
Projecting an 8% growth for the current fiscal, rating agency Fitch said on 30 April that India is less vulnerable to risks from capital flight, on account of the drop in oil prices and the government’s reform agenda.
India had previously been clubbed with Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey for being the most at risk of capital outflows following US Federal Reserve’s proposed unwinding of the monetary stimulus.
Unclogging of policy to spur growth: Dun & Bradstreet
India is expected to clock in a GDP growth of 8.4% in the current financial year, spurred by policy reforms, fall in food inflation and lower fuel prices, said Dun & Bradstreet, according to a report in Moneycontrol.com on 29 April. According to the research firm, the partial unclogging of domestic policy logjam, focus on public investments in infrastructure, fall in food inflation and lower fuel prices along with improving income growth is likely to strengthen aggregate demand.
Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!
