Technical analysts claim the bull run on Indian stock markets is over. They say that according to the Elliot Wave theory—this uses the past and present movement of the index, called waves, to predict future movement—the rally on the market has come to an end. The theory says that all bull runs comprise five waves, three of which are upward moves and two, downward (corrections). The latest correction, they add, is the last wave, the fifth.
“I remain negative on the markets. The Nifty is expected to settle between 3,200-3,400 in the next two-three weeks. Pullbacks if any, will be limited to 3,750. The fifth wave of the bullish trend has ended,” says Vijay Bhambwani, CEO of Bsplindia.com, an investment advisory. Between 9 February and 5 March, Nifty, index of the National Stock Exchange has fallen, 647 points or 15.3%. In the same period Sensex has fallen 2308 points or 15.7%.
So, are the markets in the grip of a bear hug? Not really, say analysts. They believe that the markets may slip a little more and then consolidate. Then, they add, another bull run will take shape and set off on fresh legs. “A new five-wave pattern will unfold six to 12 weeks after the markets consolidate,” says Bhambwani.
“The trend is very bearish. If the Nifty falls below 3510, then it could test 3420 levels,” says Vinit Birla, a technical analyst at Pranav Securities, a Mumbai-based brokerage. “The tower has collapsed,” adds Prem Daga, another technical analyst.