End of the road for the Big Four?
As Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray's stranglehold on tennis fades, we look at the rising stars
During the second set in the finals of the 2014 Australian Open Tennis Championships, the Swiss player Stan Wawrinka, generally known for his mild demeanour, threw a fit. His opponent, Rafael Nadal who was the top-ranked player in the world back then, had just left for the locker room for a medical time-out. Wawrinka demanded to know what exactly was wrong with Nadal. The chair umpire refused to give any answers. Wawrinka did not give up, summoning another official on court, before he was given an explanation. Meanwhile, the crowd got to his side and booed Nadal when he returned back on court after receiving treatment.
Wawrinka’s point was simple: If my opponent goes off court suddenly, I need to know why. The men’s tour’s governing body disagreed with Wawrinka, but it did not matter back then—the Swiss beat Nadal to win his first Grand Slam. What underlined his win, and the time-out argument, was confidence—something he displayed in abundance last month as well when he beat the world’s No.1 player, Novak Djokovic at the French Open to win his second Grand Slam.
The players known as the “Big Four"—Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray—have dominated men’s tennis in the last decade, winning almost all the Grand Slams between them. But since last year, that dominance has started showing signs of major wear and tear. After Wawrinka’s season opening Australian Open win last year, the season ended on Marin Cilic from Croatia winning the US Open, his first Slam. Cilic did not face any of the Big Four in the final; his opponent was Japan’s Kei Nishikori. Cilic had beaten Federer in the semi-finals, and Nishikori had taken care of Djokovic. The days when the Big Four could saunter into a Slam and win it are gone, and men’s tennis has entered a phase of deep unpredictability. Challengers are rising, and they can smell the vulnerability that surrounds the Big Four. Wawrinka was just hammering home the point when he demanded to know why Nadal had left the court.
It’s a far cry from the years 2004-07 when Federer won 93% of his matches and was ranked No.1 in the world without a break. Or even when Nadal won 14 Grand Slam titles and made it a two-way fight, or when Novak Djokovic managed to break through and took his pound of flesh by climbing to the top of men’s singles rankings in 2011.
Today, Nadal is struggling to come back from last year’s injuries and is ranked at a lowly No.10. Federer, though ranked second in the world, is 33 years old. And though he’s hungry for titles, his years of dominance are behind him. “Another two years and Federer is not going to be around," says Rod Laver, the former Australian tennis star who won 11 Grand Slams. “He’s not going to go down the rankings ladder and continue to play despite being ranked, say, 40. We’re not going to see that happen. The top order is set to change." Laver, over the phone, says a top tennis player’s average lifespan on the tour is about 10 years and adds that most of the Big Four have reached that limit.
But what about fans who feasted on the Big Four rivalries?
“You need rivalries in all sport; that’s what makes it exciting," said former Australian player Mark Philippoussis over an email. “But you also need dark horses; you don’t want sport to be too predictable. Today, there are so many other guys who too could win the big titles in men’s tennis. Did we expect Cilic to win the US Open last year? Previously, it was difficult to win Grand Slams; now it’s increasingly possible. This sport needs that." Philippoussis is betting on Tomas Berdych of Czech Republic, Nishikori, and Milos Raonic of Canada to become the biggest challengers. Last year, Berdych made it to a career-best five ATP (Association of Tennis Professional) tournaments finals, winning two of them. Earlier this year, he made it to the semi-finals at the Australian Open.
Apart from Wawrinka and “that Japanese guy who’s got a great game and plays very well under pressure" (Nishikori), Laver is particularly kicked about a 19-year-old from his own country, Thanasi Kokkinakis. At the 2015 French Open, Kokkinakis saved three match points in the second round to beat fellow Australian Bernard Tomic in the fifth and final set. He lost in the next round to Djokovic.
“He will, eventually, be a very good player," Laver predicts. “He’s only 18 now. But in three years time, I think he’s going to be pretty damn tough."
So where does that leave the Big Four? Murray and Djokovic are both 28, and Nadal is a year older, so Gilbert says none of them are going to give up in a hurry.
“Top players aren’t going anywhere," says Gilbert. “But other guys do believe that they have opportunities especially now since Stan (Wawrinka) has won two Grand Slam titles."
Will Wimbledon see a new champion from outside the boundaries set by the Big Four?
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