Coal, POL, and fertilizers were the key cargo volume drivers, increasing the total volumes by 24% y-o-y to 35.7 MnMT (28.8 MnMT); this growth was in line with our estimates of 36.1 MnMT.
Bulk cargo accounted for 54% (46%) of total cargo volumes, crude oil 19% (24%), and containers 27% (30%).
Revenues stood at Rs11,949 million, up 46% y-o-y, as against our estimates for Rs13,190 million.
Though cargo volumes are in line with our estimates, revenues were lower than our projections due to marginally lower than expected realizations.
The average realization increased to Rs315 / MT as against our estimate of Rs325 / MT and Rs285 / MT in FY08.
EBITDA was up 37% y-o-y to Rs7,340 million (Rs5,344 million) vs. our estimates of RsRs7,467 million. EBITDA margins have trended downwards by 381bps, from 65.6% for FY08 to 61.8% for FY09.
Recurring PAT was up 117% y-o-y to Rs4,277 million for FY09 (Rs1,967mn) as foreign exchange gains and losses were excluded from recurring PAT, and effective tax rate dropped significantly, from 42.1% in FY08 to just 10.3% in FY09 as the company availed tax benefits.
MPSEZ has opted not to provide for foreign exchange loss on loans taken for acquisition of assets, and, hence, not provided for Rs881 million on this account. Thus, the gross block would increase by an equivalent amount due to capitalization of this loss.
We maintain our SELL recommendation on MPSEZ but increase our PO to Rs385 (earlier Rs315). This revision is driven by changes in our WACC assumptions.
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