May 2009 container traffic data released by Indian Port Association (IPA) witnessed 10.5% y-o-y decline, but increased by a moderate 3.8% on a mom basis.
The JNPT port, which handles around 61% of the country’s container volumes, witnessed a fall of 9.4% y-o-y in volumes, while posting 4.4% rise on m-o-m basis.
The Chennai port, which handles around 16% of the country’s container volumes, witnessed 16.6% y-o-y fall, but flat growth m-o-m.
May 2009 data indicates that container traffic is stablising at current levels post bottoming out, in absolute terms, in January and February 2009. Going ahead, we expect trade to revive post 2QFY2010.
Nonetheless, we believe that the high base effect of 1HFY2009 and lacklustre Exports in the near term will keep the growth in Exim volumes subdued for FY2010.
Company-wise, we estimate Concor to post flat Exim volumes growth in FY2010 as against management’s guidance of 10%.