India’s coffee production, Asia’s third largest, may increase 12% next year as the crop recovers from rain damage this season, boosting global supplies, a government official said.
Output may reach 293,000 tonnes in the year beginning October compared with the 262,000 tonnes forecast for this year, G.V. Krishna Rau, chairman of the state-owned Coffee Board of India, said on Thursday in a phone interview from Bangalore.
Total coffee production was 288,000 tonnes in the previous year.
A bigger harvest in India, which exports 80% of its output, may pressure robusta coffee prices that have climbed 15% this year.
Global production, led by Brazil, will rise by about 9% next season and match demand, according to the London-based International Coffee Organization. Meanwhile Uganda, Africa’s biggest producer of the robusta variety, said its exports may rise 2.1% this month because of a bigger crop.
Robusta beans are used in instant coffee and espresso.
“There is certainly going to be more coffee available for exports,” Rau said. “Increased availability may prompt instant-coffee makers to import less,” he added.
Robusta coffee for delivery in July rose $3 (Rs128.4), or 0.1%, to $2,199 a tonne on the London International Financial Futures Exchange in Thursday morning trade. Prices have gained 18% in the past year.
Heavy rains in the coffee-growing regions in Karnataka and Kerala last year damaged crops.
Mid-summer rains this March, the highest in 133 years according to the Indian meteorology department, hurt some crops at the flowering stage.
“Monsoon rainfall in recent years has never been consistent and so we’re keepingour fingers crossed,” Rau said. “The crop condition is generally good at the moment.”
India’s coffee output next year will comprise 193,000 tonnes of robusta beans, 14% more from this season, and 100,000 tonnes of the arabica variety, Rau said. Robusta usually make up almost 70% of the total harvest.
Karnataka may produce 214,170 tonnes of coffee, Kerala 57,200 tonnes, and Tamil Nadu 16,625 tonnes, he said.
Exports may increase by at least 10% from 210,000 tonnes estimated for this year, the board said.
Exports advanced 31% in value to $292.5 million as shipments fetched about Rs1.05 lakh a tonne on average, compared with about Rs83,700 a tonne a year earlier. Italy and Russia are among buyers of Indian coffee this year.