Mumbai: Dalal Street may turn bullish next week on the weekend-development of India getting a crucial waiver in the nuclear deal with the US, but cues from global stock markets would remain a key driver, analysts believe.
“With the much-touted Indo-US nuclear deal getting the green signal from the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for the waiver, domestic markets are expected to start next week on a strong note,” they said.
“The nuclear waiver is a positive thing for the market. The Indian markets were holding back because the investors were apprehensive about the NSG decision,” domestic brokerage firm SMC Global’s Vice President Rajesh Jain said.
The waiver would enable India to carry out civil nuclear commerce, ending 34 years of isolation enforced in the wake of the 1974 Pokharan nuclear tests.
“Markets are likely to open strong on Monday and can look forward for a better week,” Jain said.
“After a strong opening driven by positive sentiments created by nuclear deal waiver, the Indian markets could take cues from the global market, but a positive sentiment should prevail,” he added.
However, the continuing stalemate over Tata’s Nano plant at Singur in West Bengal could turn out to be detrimental for the domestic bourses, some other brokers said.
Domestic markets would also be keenly watching the meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries next week. Opec is scheduled to meet on 9 September in Vienna, where a decision is expected on whether to cut down oil production or leave it unchanged.
The 13 Opec countries account for 40% of world’s oil production and crude oil prices have always been a key factor for the stock market movements.
“The FIIs are not investing in any of the Asian markets as the positive sentiments are not there. Till the time the global markets do not come out of bearishness, any rally would be short lived,” Jain said.
Having sold shares worth a total of close to Rs28,000 crore so far this year, FIIs bought shares worth over Rs500 crore in first week of September.
“Political uncertainty in Singur could also act as a dampener for the foreign investors. Further, the OPEC meet will be decisive factor for the market movement with investors closely watching the decision,” Jain noted.
On the positive side, inflation has declined for the second week in a row. As on 23 August, inflation stood at 12.34% with prices of many food items including fruits and vegetables falling during the period.
However, Reserve Bank of India’s new Governor D Subbarao, who took charge on Friday, has indicated the apex bank would continue to pursue policies to contain inflation to seven per cent by the end of current fiscal.
“The immediate priority for me as the Governor of RBI will be to manage inflation and anchor inflationary expectations,” Subbarao has said. The new RBI governor’s moves are also likely to be closely watched by the markets.
Meanwhile, recessionary fears in the US economy is persisting with the country witnessing job losses for the eight straight month till August.
According to the US Labor Department, payrolls shrank by 84,000 last month, higher than the 51,000 jobs lost in July.
The benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex lost 80.70 points or 0.55% to 14,483.83, while wide-based Nifty lost 7.70 points or 0.17% to 4352.30 in the week ended 5 September. The market declined in three out of four trading sessions in the truncated week.