Red flags emerge for India’s bond market as farmer bailouts rise
Mumbai: Investors in India’s bond market are already raising red flags on the potential impact from populist farmer bailouts being engineered by different state governments.
Yields on the so-called state development loans, or SDLs, climbed at the most recent auction, widening their spread over sovereign rates. The increase comes amid concern that waiving billions of dollars in farm loans will worsen already strained states’ finances. Debt sales by regional administrations are set to rise this quarter, and could pose a challenge for the federal government’s borrowing program.
“Loan waivers will have a negative impact on state finances” said C. Venkat Nageswar, the Mumbai-based head of treasury and deputy managing director at State Bank of India, the largest lender. “At least part of this additional burden will be financed through market borrowings, which could push up SDL spreads.”
Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state, set off a domino effect by saying in April that it will waive off loans worth Rs363.6 billion ($5.6 billion). Maharashtra, Karnataka and Punjab have announced similar bailouts, while farmers in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Tamil Nadu are clamouring for the debt relief, which if granted could cost hundreds of billions of rupees more.
The cutoffs at a 27 June auction of 10-year debt by various state governments saw their yield spread over similar-maturity sovereign bonds widen to a range of 74-83 basis points, from 63-73 basis points at the previous sale on 13 June. The gaps were around 50 basis points in October.
That’s “the new normal,” said Vivek Rajpal, a Singapore-based rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “I wouldn’t be too keen on assuming that spreads will narrow over time.”
With populations as large as 200 million people, Indian states are massive, and also wield enormous budgets. The bailouts come at a time when their finances are already strained as they roll out pay hikes for several government employees and acquire debt piled up at state-run power distribution companies under a 2015 federal plan to revive the utilities.
States plan to borrow a combined Rs980 billion to Rs1.05 trillion this quarter, showed an indicative borrowing calendar released by the central bank this week. That compares with announced debt sales of up to Rs750 billion for the same period last year and as much as Rs777 billion for the three months ended 30 June.
Country-wide waivers may reach 18% to 20% of India’s estimated outstanding farm loans of Rs17 trillion, according to Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. However, the details of how each state will fund its deficit are yet to be laid out, with some likely to cut down on expenditure to fund a part of their bailout. Some others may choose to finance the deficit over multiple years.
“Higher state-bond premiums will likely lead to higher federal government yields with a lag,” said Amit Agrawal, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in Bengaluru. He predicts the 10-year sovereign yield, which was at 6.54% in Mumbai on Thursday, to rise to 7% by end-2017. Bloomberg
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