Why blame equity analysts when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) doesn’t seem to have a clue about the economy?
Also See Just Another Soothsayer (Graphic)
The chart above gives the widely differing gross domestic product growth estimates made by IMF at various times in the last six months. Okay, so forecasting is hardly an exact science, but what can one say when estimates of world output for 2009 are revised from 3.9% to 0.5% in just six months? Or when the estimates of Japanese growth for 2008 are pared from an expansion of 1.5% to a contraction of 0.3%? Is there any point in giving out these numbers?
Maybe it’s far better to just look at the stock markets: By last November, they were around the same level as they are now, implying that they had discounted the sudden slowdown in the world economy much better than IMF.