Market round-up: Goldilocks markets could end in three ways, says Nomura
In other news, Opec’s output rose to the highest this year; Indian companies throng equity for funds
As the twin Energizer Bunnies known as the stock and bond markets keep rolling on and shrugging off risk after risk, analysts are sketching out what could trip them up. Kevin Gaynor, head of international research at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London, is recommending that investors keep an eye on three more prosaic dynamics for signs that markets will turn: A jump in inflation rates that wasn’t driven by accelerating growth. A change in central bank reaction functions, which is a wonky way to describe a shift in what triggers policymakers to act. An increase in the so-called term premium, which is the implicit extra return investors demand to hold longer-maturity bonds rather than keep rolling over shorter-term ones. Bloomberg
Opec’s output rose to the highest this year
Crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) rose to the highest this year in June as member nations exempt from output curbs pumped more. Members of Opec boosted their output by 260,000 barrels a day compared with May, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data. Half of the increase came from Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from making cuts under the deal agreed between Opec and its allies. Opec began production cuts in January to reduce swollen global inventories and bolster the price of oil, which is still stuck at half its 2014 level. In May, Opec and its partners, including Russia, extended their agreement for a further nine months through March 2018 because the oil market had failed to rebalance. Resurgent production in Libya and Nigeria is threatening to neutralize the cuts made by the rest of the group. Bloomberg
Indian companies throng equity for funds
Soaring stock indices are making Indian companies form a beeline to raise funds from the equity markets, especially at a time when banks are becoming cautious on lending. Indian companies raised $10 billion from the equity market between January and June of this year, more than double the amount they raised in the same period in 2016. A latest Thomson Reuters report shows that the most popular way to raise money was through follow-on public issue of shares. This could also mean that the intended use for funds raised is largely towards operations than new investment. Nevertheless, more and more companies are getting listed as initial public offerings surged 116% to $2.6 billion, the report shows. Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd took the lead for Indian equity capital market underwriting with $1.7 billion in related proceeds and captured 17.3% of activity. Bank of America Merrill Lynch followed behind at second place with 9.7% market share.