India’s export recover not yet broad-based, says Nomura report

Exports to Asia-ex-Japan have led the turnaround, rising by 56% year-on-year in January 2017 after being nearly flat in 2016


Though the exports to G3 (US, euro zone and Japan) rose by 1.2% y-o-y in January, exports to all other regions combined are still contracting, falling by 8.1% y-o-y in January. Graphic by Naveen Kumar Saini/Mint
Though the exports to G3 (US, euro zone and Japan) rose by 1.2% y-o-y in January, exports to all other regions combined are still contracting, falling by 8.1% y-o-y in January. Graphic by Naveen Kumar Saini/Mint

After nearly two years of contraction, India’s merchandise exports growth turned decisively positive in last September; yet, there is a wide variance for these exports by destination, said a Nomura report.

Exports to Asia-ex-Japan (AEJ) have led the turnaround, rising by 56% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January 2017 after being nearly flat in 2016.

Also, the increase in exports to China, Malaysia and Taiwan was particularly significant. Though the exports to G3 (US, euro zone and Japan) rose by 1.2% y-o-y in January, exports to all other regions combined are still contracting, falling by 8.1% y-o-y in January.

Monthly data can be volatile, but even on a three-month moving average basis, exports in January rose by 29.9% to AEJ, by 5.9% to G3 and contracted by 4% to other regions, it added.

According to Nomura, the recent increase in the export orders index of the manufacturing purchasing manufacturers’ index, or PMI, to 50.7 in February suggests this turnaround in exports growth should continue over the near term; however, data on exports by destination suggest that the demand recovery is not yet broad-based.

Political uncertainty among top three risks

Global investors continue to identify crowded trades/herd behaviour and lack of market liquidity as significant potential risks to the hedge fund industry. However, this year, political uncertainty is among the top three concerns at the top of investors’ minds, pointed out Credit Suisse in its ninth annual Hedge Fund Investor Survey.

Apart from that, investors are also wary of the potential impact of central bank actions around the world, as global monetary policy remains in the spotlight and on top of mind for many allocators, it added.

Meanwhile, overall sentiment for hedge fund industry growth is positive.

The industry begins the year at an all-time high for assets under management (AUM) of $3.02 trillion and investors are forecasting a 3.5% increase in new inflows during 2017, the survey said.

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