Mumbai: India’s gold prices are seen rising gradually to end the year near Rs10,000 per 10gm with the metal glowing with safe haven appeal in a world filled with economic and political worries, analysts and dealers said.
A Reuters poll of 12 banks and brokerages showed on 5 April gold was likely to be at a median Rs9,511 at the end of June, higher at Rs9,680 at the end of September and further up at Rs9,920 at the end of 2007. Majority of respondents saw a gradual rise across the next three quarters with five participants predicting a rise to Rs10,000 or beyond.
“As fears of an economic slowdown in the US and elsewhere in the world become more pronounced, gold will rise,” said Kishore Narne, vice-president at Anand Rathi Commodities.
“Added to this is geopolitical tensions simmering in several pockets of the world.” Narne said volatility would persist. “News flow emanating from the economic scenario and geopolitical fears will cause the volatility,” he said.
A Reuters poll of 10 analysts in January had shown gold was expected to reach Rs10,350 at the end of December.
Analysts said gold may cross last year’s record high of Rs10,715, but may lack the strength to stay at those levels. “I don’t rule out new highs, but I don’t expect the market to sustain them,” said Ashish Karel, research analyst at Man Financial Commodities India Pvt. Ltd. “There would be liquidity and profit taking at every rise.”
Analysts said any appreciation of the rupee against the US dollar would soften some of gold’s overseas gains.
A Reuters poll forecasts rupee to be at 43.95 to a dollar by the end of the year, stronger from 44.0 expected at the end of June.
But an analyst from IL&FS Investsmart Commodities Ltd said gold prices might fall in the latter half of 2007 with volatility and higher and attractive interest rates curtailing buyers’ appetite for the metal.
“We are expecting the US economy to get back to a more moderate pace of growth with lower inflation,” the IL&FS analyst said.
In the scenario of rising gold prices, Indians would remain buyers for the love of the metal, a senior dealer at Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd, said.