Melbourne: Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, comments on China, global warming, metals prices and hedge funds. He spoke to journalists at a briefing in Melbourne.
“The Chinese stock market has been in a mini bubble, the Chinese government is going to crack down on that. Who knows what kind of setbacks— you will probably see political upheaval, you will see riots in the streets I am sure, you might even see massacres like you had in the United States as we rose to power and glory.
“None of that is going to change the China story as far as I am concerned any more than it changed the US.
“The only thing that worries me about the China story is the water problem. Northern China has a serious water problem, you have a serious water problem here (in Australia), but you can’t believe their water problem, it is much worse than yours.
“If China cannot solve its water problem, that could be the end of the story. The same is true of Northern India.
“One thing that worries me, not just about China, is the fact that protectionism may be raising its ugly head again. Certainly in the US, it is raising its head. If protectionism comes again, then most bets are off; nobody has ever won a trade war. That too would mess up the China story significantly.”
“They all stand out for various reasons, nickel because it is at an all-time high, silver because it is 75% below its all-time high. Palladium is 70% below its all-time high. If I had to buy , I would buy silver or palladium than nickel today. I am not doing either. But the metals markets have a great future. We are having corrections and we are going to have more.”
Bull market in commodities
“The shortest one I have found lasted 15 years, the longest was 23 years.
“If history is any guide, it will be sometime between 2014 and 2022. That is obviously not a prediction. I don’t know.
“Some day, I am going to come here and there (are) going to be windmills everywhere and solar panels and all sorts of changes, which have taken place in the world. ”
“If global warming is actually happening, and there are plenty of people saying it is not and there are plenty of people saying it is, I don’t know, I don’t have a position.”
“The dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency just as the pound sterling did.
“I have said before, many people are trying to figure out how to do it right now, some people are trying to figure out how they can price their products in non-US dollars.
“We are going to have a bull market in commodities no matter what happens to the US dollar.”