Global workforce ageing, in a threat to growth

The share of workers who are aged 55-64 rose to 13% in 2015, and is projected to rise to 15% in the next 10 years, Morgan Stanley says in a note


As the labour force ages, productivity will gain that much more importance in driving economic growth. Photo: Mint
As the labour force ages, productivity will gain that much more importance in driving economic growth. Photo: Mint

Since 2011, the global age dependency ratio has been rising after a 45-year period of improvement, increasing the age of the working population.

The global labour force is also ageing rapidly, and the share of workers who are aged 55-64 rose to 13% in 2015, and is projected to rise to 15% in the next 10 years, said Morgan Stanley in a note.

These demographic headwinds are impacting economies that account for 64% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) in purchasing power parity terms and 78% in nominal GDP terms.

As the labour force ages, productivity will gain that much more importance in driving economic growth.

But productivity growth has been weak, points out Morgan Stanley, and the ageing workforce will have an additional impact.

Moderation of sorts in use of petroleum products

India’s petroleum products consumption fell 0.7% year-on-year in September.

According to analysts, the last time petroleum products consumption had declined was in October 2014 when the metric fell by 2%.

Diesel and petrol consumption declined 11% and 3%, respectively, in September.

Performance was presumably affected by restricted freight/passenger movement due to heavy rains as against a weak monsoon last year, says Kotak Institutional Equities.

In September 2015, petrol and diesel consumption saw 20%-plus growth.

But monthly volatility aside, it’s worth noting that growth has moderated to 8% in the first half of FY17 as compared to 13% in the second half of FY16.

“We see further moderation in 2HFY17 given the high base effect and waning of previous year’s one-off factors,” adds Kotak.

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