BackAssembly elections: The Congress is on the backfoot but the BJP should not gloat
With the general election still about five months away, it is too early to read anything conclusive into these assembly elections
Premium
Even the most ardent Congress supporter will have to admit that the just-concluded assembly elections have yielded a disastrous return for the party. Across the spectrum, the euphoric mood among the supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can be well understood too. The overwhelming sense among the BJP of prevailing in a “semi-final" contest appears to have taken hold. Yet with the general election still about five months away, there is time yet for a change in momentum. Any signs of over-confidence from the BJP or utter despondency from the Congress party at this stage would be unduly premature.
To be sure though, the collective verdict from the public in Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan has delivered a spectacular rebuff to the Congress party. The symbolic potency of Congress chief minister Shiela Dikshit in Delhi being unseated by the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) Arvind Kejriwal spoke eloquently to the power of the voters to boldly effect change. If the Congress leadership harboured any doubts about the scale of the challenge that lies ahead as it seeks one-third successive mandate to govern at the Centre, the trends from these assembly elections should certainly send alarm bells ringing. These elections took place at a regional level but their impact at the national level cannot be ignored.
The urban devastation that the Congress party suffered in Delhi was equally matched by its rout in the Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan hinterland. In Chhattisgarh, it failed to make significant inroads by trailing the BJP by 11 seats in a 90-seat Vidhan Sabha and conceding overall majority to it. It was overthrown by the voters in Delhi and Rajasthan while the conventional anti-incumbency tide did not float its boat in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh either. There is no denying the abysmal nature of these returns.
What really went wrong? After such a shambolic performance, the usual noises about the need to “listen and learn" and to “introspect" were made. But the party needs to probe deeper. Simply gazing at the tip of the iceberg is unlikely to reveal all. In part, the debacle owes much to a spate of scandals associated during the Congress party’s stewardship in Delhi and elsewhere that voters rightly felt inclined to punish. Factionalism had a starring role too, particularly illustrated in Madhya Pradesh where a phalanx of prominent Congress leaders seemed bent on sending competing and confusing signals to voters.
The results also spoke to a perceived failure of governance and lack of confidence in the party’s economic prospectus. The irony is that a party that has promoted a fiscally dubious expansion of public spending at the Centre to woo ordinary voters wasn’t rewarded for its populist pitch. Apart from these factors, the larger truth is that a relentless degree of centralization from the party’s high command in Delhi has contributed to a moribund grass-roots support base. The party chose to over-emphasize Rahul Gandhi by diluting the regional leadership but this “top down" approach has failed to impress voters. A much more subtle linkage between the central leadership and the local leadership is urgently needed.
What might be said for the BJP then? Undoubtedly, these results will contribute to a sense of momentum that is developing around its general election campaign spearheaded by Narendra Modi. Supporters may be inclined to reach the conclusion that these results are largely due to Modi’s galvanizing impact on the ground. The party’s campaign posters screaming “Yes We Can—Yes Will Do" take their cue from Modi’s perceived reputation as a determined man of action. It is a message that the electorate is prepared to hear seriously. Modi has certainly been a vital contributing factor to these results. Yet it would be a mistake on the BJP’s part to attribute its success solely to the strength of Modi’s personality. The truth is that its regional gains are also due to its local leadership which was well empowered and had done the hard work of cultivating a local base. Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje played their roles with an understated confidence that resonated with the voters. In doing so, they were able to appeal to a broader constituency than the party’s traditional base. That is a message that the BJP would do well to remember too.
Ultimately, with the general election still about five months away, it is too early to read anything conclusive into these assembly elections. The four states that have just delivered their verdict are not among the states with the largest intake to the Lok Sabha. The complex and unpredictable dynamic of electoral alliances need to be factored too. In short, much can change yet. As T.S. Eliot wrote: “In a minute there is time...for decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse." For now though, the Congress is firmly on the backfoot. But the BJP would do well not to gloat. Greater challenges lie ahead in the New Year.
Rishabh Bhandari is a lawyer based in London. He also writes on subjects that include British and Indian social, political and economic affairs.
Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!
