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Business News/ Opinion / Online-views/  Ajay Lele | MH17 and its aftermath
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Ajay Lele | MH17 and its aftermath

Support for rebels through supply of weapons such as those which shot down the plane indicates Russia may look to change the Ukrainian border further

The wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in Donetsk region’s Hrabove. The plane was engaged by a missile when it was at a height of about 32,000 feet above the ground. Photo: ReutersPremium
The wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in Donetsk region’s Hrabove. The plane was engaged by a missile when it was at a height of about 32,000 feet above the ground. Photo: Reuters

Ten days after Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down by an “unidentified missile system" near the Ukraine-Russia border, there is no clarity about the direction of the ensuing investigations. It has been reported that evidence at the site where the plane was shot down has been tampered with. According to a separatist commander in Ukraine, pro-Russian fighters were in possession of the surface-to-air (SAM) BUK missiles that probably brought down flight MH17. Most likely, the missile system was quickly sent back to Russia after it was realized that a commercial flight had been shot down.

Do the pro-Russian fighters (rebels) have the technical wherewithal to mount such an attack? The rebel leaders are not ready to take responsibility for the attack and claim that they do not have BUK missiles. Also, the Russian government has completely washed its hands of all responsibility. Interestingly, after the MH17 incident, two Ukrainian Su-25 jets were downed at a location around 25km from the MH17 crash site. In this case, the rebels were quick to claim responsibility. They claim to have used manpads (man-portable air defence system) to shoot down these fighter aircraft.

MH17 was engaged by a missile when the aircraft was at a height of about 32,000 feet above the ground. Also, as per the Ukraine government claim, the Su-25 jets were flying at a higher altitude and were probably brought down by some precision missile system. Hence, it is unlikely that manpads can effectively engage such a fast-moving target. Post the MH17 disaster, rebel forces have ensured that no surface-to-air missile systems are available in their area of operation. Under such circumstances, there exists a possibility that the attack could even have got originated from Russian soil.

Both these incidents put in focus the employability of surface-to-air missiles in this conflict. It is important to note that this conflict is somewhat unique. Russia had seized the Black Sea peninsula known as Crimea from Ukraine in March. Today, the sovereignty of this peninsula is disputed. However, the takeover of this region was almost bloodless, and presently, it is de facto controlled by the Russian Federation. On the other hand, Ukraine is fighting a bloody battle with Russia-backed rebels in its eastern area, a region that the rebels call the Lugansk People’s Republic. This is the region where guided missiles are being found at work!

Guided missiles are automatic explosive-carrying vehicles that move above the earth’s surface and approach a target. These missiles are controlled either by an internal or external source. Different varieties of missiles are used for different targets such as tanks, ships or aircraft. To attack a target like a moving aircraft from the ground, surface-to-air missiles are put to use. One or more ground-based radars are put in use for the target’s identification. Some specific missiles do have their own internal radars that track the target. After target identification, the weapons officer in charge of the missile launch selects the missile and this missile automatically undertakes specific tests to ensure a perfect launch towards the target and then gets fired by the weapons officer. All this while, the launcher tracking the radar keeps on monitoring the position and distance of the target. During the journey of the missile towards the target, it keeps getting the latest information with regard to the position of the target and undertakes the required mid-course corrections. This entire process—from target identification to launch of the missile and engagement of the target—takes very little time (a few minutes or even seconds).

In all probability, it is expected that a BUK missile (The NATO, or North Atlantic Treaty Organization, name for these missiles is SA-11) system carrying 150 lbs of explosives was fired at MH17, a Boeing 777 aircraft. These missiles are designed to attack an aircraft at an altitude of up to 75,000 feet with 95% accuracy. This system includes four missiles on a turntable mounted on a tracked vehicle. A separate tracked vehicle carries radars to guide the missiles. It is likely that Russia has trained the separatists to use SA-11 and a few other air defence systems. During the last one month, rebels have successfully shot down more than 10 Ukrainian aircraft.

The downing of MH17 appears to have been a clear miscalculation on the part of the rebels. They probably thought MH17 was a Ukrainian military transport aircraft. It is unlikely that Russia or the rebel group would ever accept this disaster to have been the result of their misjudgement. Presently, the rest of the world has very limited options to control or stop this conflict. Any form of sanctions on Russia would have limited relevance and so far Russia has shown no inclination to resolve this issue amicably or diplomatically. Covert Russian support for the rebels through the supply of heavy weapon systems such as surface-to-air missiles clearly indicates that Russia is probably not satisfied with annexing Crimea and may be intending to change the Ukrainian border further. The way things stand today, it is unlikely that the 298 innocent victims on board MH17 would ever get justice.

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Published: 28 Jul 2014, 02:50 PM IST
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