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Business News/ Opinion / Thy hand, great dyarch!*
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Thy hand, great dyarch!*

Instead of remedying the country's deteriorating macroeconomic situation, Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi have retreated into pursuing individualized agendas

A file photo of Sonia Gandhi (left), and Manmohan Singh. Photo: MintPremium
A file photo of Sonia Gandhi (left), and Manmohan Singh. Photo: Mint

Dyarchy, or rule by two, historically, is a device that works only for a limited period, if at all. In 1919, the British colonial government decided to hand over some “responsibility" to Indian ministers—largely low-voltage areas such as agriculture and education—while keeping the levers of control in the hands of the viceroy and his men. This they did to keep Indian aspirations and unrest in check. The idea was to associate Indians with power while keeping them away from the substance of it. To go back even further in time, in 285 AD, Roman emperor Diocletian appointed a co-emperor to manage and consolidate the empire that had been through a series of crises. Both are examples of incentives faced by rulers confronting difficult circumstances.

Something similar has been afoot in India for almost a decade now. The arrangement, while never made explicit, was simple. The leader of the Congress party, Sonia Gandhi, would manage politics—considered too contentious and unruly for a man of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s temperament—and he would sort out the country’s administration. Naïve observers, usually located in urban India, thought this would smooth the path for economic reforms and sustain high growth in the years ahead.

Instead something very different happened.

For a while it worked. Singh did push through some interesting measures. The high point was the India-US civil nuclear deal in 2005. But that was about it. In future, if historians turn back and look at when matters began to unravel, that period will be roughly the years 2005-07. While tranquil, those years gestated the economic and political chaos seen in India today. It was in those years that the ruling coalition and particularly the Congress simply lost the plot. At the macro level, two mistaken assumptions informed policy actions. That high growth was now on autopilot and massive re-distributive programmes were costless. All this is well-known; but what are more interesting are the micro-motives, or more accurately incentives, that informed the choices made by Singh and Gandhi and how these changed when India moved from a high-growth to a low-growth path.

When growth is robust and the outcomes generally positive, leaders can gamble without fear of consequences. Singh did, initially, champion unpopular but sound causes. Gandhi did engage in hands off politics—and while that may not seem much of a choice but even not doing anything is a choice. In this period (2005-07) both did adhere to the original dyarchic arrangement—Singh focused on administrative issues and Gandhi on politics—and both respected the self-imposed boundaries.

Since then, even as India’s economic growth and economic prospects have turned sclerotic, Gandhi has aggressively pursued politics via policy-cum-administrative actions—the National Food Security Bill and the rural employment guarantee scheme are good examples. These are pure schemes for the political survival of her party and have very little to do with the larger good of the country. Singh is now actively engaged in legacy enhancement. His unrelenting pursuit of peace with Pakistan—a political decision of a high order—exemplifies these changed micro-motives very well. Ideally, it should be the higher forums of the party that should, in close coordination with the government, deliberate these issues. This is, by and large, Singh’s turf today. The minister for external affairs only justifies what the Prime Minister decrees. The logic of dyarchy has broken down.

Comparisons with historical examples cited earlier may appear to be facile as the three periods involve very different political realities. But is that really so? Any dyarchy—whether it be one effected by the Government of India Act, 1919, or what Diocletian established or what our leaders have done for nearly one decade—is, in the end, a device to circumvent some political problem or the other. It is also a truth that such a system does not last. In the India of early 20th century it led to political upheaval; in ancient Rome, bloodshed. In our times, it has created a near economic crisis. In two instances—colonial India and ancient Rome—dyarchy was the instrument of choice to placate political rivals or manage a politically hard situation. In the UPA years, it was originally meant to further the interests of the country. But a flip in economic conditions has twisted choices made under it out of shape. The choices of these leaders are revealing: Instead of remedying the country’s deteriorating macroeconomic situation, both retreated into pursuing very individualized, survival and legacy, agendas.

Today, the government’s initial reaction after the killing of Indian soldiers in a cross-border raid by Pakistani soldiers is to exculpate the government of that country. For the leader of the largest party in the ruling coalition, the fiscal health of the country really does not matter. Both could have complemented each other’s areas of action. Gandhi could have steered the country’s politics in a positive, non-activist driven, direction; Singh certainly could have managed the economy better. Instead both chose very different options.

*(with apologies to Alexander Pope)

Siddharth Singh is Editor (Views) at Mint. Reluctant Duelist will take stock of matters economic, political and strategic—in India and elsewhere—every fortnight. Comments are welcome at siddharth.s@livemint.com. To read Siddharth Singh’s previous columns, go to www.livemint.com/reluctantduelist

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Published: 13 Aug 2013, 07:51 PM IST
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