BackThe choice before India’s middle class
Slowing growth could reverse the apathy of the affluent towards politics
Premium
The electoral extravaganza is now rolling through India: candidates have been announced, political deals have been struck, the important leaders are hitting the campaign trail and squabbles within the major political parties over constituencies are adding some spice to the entire mix. The country is just a fortnight away from the first phase of polling.
The Election Commission has said that 814.5 million citizens will be eligible to vote this year. One vote is just a drop in this vast ocean so why do people bother to vote at all? The median victory margin in the 2009 election was about 54,000 so the probability of any single vote changing the course of an election is very small indeed. Economists would argue that a rational agent would not find the opportunity costs of going to cast a vote profitable. Why spend time queuing up to vote when you know that your single vote hardly matters in the larger scheme of things? Yet the beauty of the electoral process is that ordinary citizens continue to vote because they believe their solitary voice matters in the cacophony of our populous democracy.
The poor have generally shown more commitment to the electoral process than the middle class. One possible reason is the way people in the two groups live their lives in contemporary India. The poor need the system because they are dependent on it for their daily existence. The local politician is their best bet to get things done from a dysfunctional system, even if the person chosen to represent them has attributes that the elite loves to scoff at: caste calculations, muscle power, corruption. But it is this same local politician who can ensure that a sick child from a slum gets attention in an overcrowded public hospital even in the middle of the night.
The middle class has increasingly become cynical of the electoral process—or is falling prey to the competing cults of the Great Leader—because its dependence on the government system has lessened over the years. It does not need the public hospital because it gets healed in private hospitals, and also uses private schools, private transport and private security. Its incentives to engage with the system have declined. A booming economy ensured that earnings went up faster than inflation while the middle class could use the economic gains of the boom years to retreat into gated communities (though even some poor communities have begun to seek solutions in the private sector if one goes by the schooling data in urban slums). One of the big questions in the election this year is whether the end of the economic boom will make the middle class realize that it needs the government as well, at least to get the economy back on track. And will this belated realization see it reconnect with the electoral process?
One useful way to understand this change is through the insights of economist Albert Hirschman, who said that people respond to organizational troubles in two ways: either by raising their voice to reform the system, or by exiting the entire game in disgust. There are no prizes for guessing which option that middle class has leaned towards. Election 2014 could see the middle class shift its strategy from exit to voice. That momentous change should be welcomed not only because it will add to the voting numbers but because the influential voice of the middle class could provide the sort of momentum for systemic change that has eluded India in recent years.
Election campaigns are being framed in terms of three grand narratives: governance, inclusion and corruption. It is yet to be seen which of these three competing narratives strikes a chord with the middle class—and indeed what has now been described as the aspirational neo-middle class.
Will increased middle-class interest in politics lead to positive change? Tell us at views@livemint.com
Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!
