BackMiddle East: Who is fighting whom?
Making sense of rivalries and friendships in the Middle East
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The combined offensive by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries in Yemen is the newest front of the ongoing multi-actor power struggle in the Middle East. Sectarian rivalries, cutting across borders, have made the region a battleground since 2003 when Saddam Hussein was removed as Iraq’s ruler.
The number of actors, state and non-state, has become so large that it is now difficult to keep track of who is for and against whom in the region. Here is a list of the major state and non-state actors with special focus on those who are engaged in civil wars in more than one country:
Syria
Against the backdrop of the Arab Spring, the crisis in Syria started primarily as an uprising against Bashar al Assad’s government. Assad’s Ba’ath Party has been in power in Syria since 1963.
What started as a movement against a dictatorial regime soon became an all out civil war between different interest groups. Assad is an Alawite. Alawis represent a sect of Shia Islam and are a minority in Syria which is a Sunni Arab-majority country. Rule by minorities is the cause for bitter rivalries in Syria and other parts of the Middle East. Support for Assad’s government and rebels, from the Middle East, is also similarly divided along religious lines.
Assad’s supporters
Iran: The Shia-majority country backs Assad’s government and the Syrian army with financial and military support. In a region dominated by Sunni-majority countries, it is crucial for Iran to ensure the survival of another Shia-controlled regime.
Hezbollah: Based in Lebanon, the Hezbollah is a Shiite militant group. Besides its involvement in the sectarian politics in Lebanon, in the last three years, Hezbollah has been actively engaged in supporting Assad’s regime.
Assad’s enemies
Free Syrian Army: The FSA started out as a group of defected Syrian army officers who considered “any member of the Assad security forces that kill our people a target to our rifles" (Syria’s Armed Opposition, Joseph Holliday, March 2012). Over the last two-three years, FSA has received support from the US and Saudi Arabia. Ironically, FSA is backing Kurdish militia to fight the Islamic State (ISIS), which Saudi Arabia backs and the US, at least in theory, is supposed to be fighting.
ISIS: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, operates in north-eastern Syria and is actively engaged in fighting Assad’s government. It is estimated that ISIS has 6000-7000 fighters in Syria.
Iraq
When Haider al-Abadi took over as Iraq’s prime minister from Nouri al Maliki, there were expectations that the new Shia government might finally undo the damage caused by the previous one and would take a more inclusive approach towards the Sunni minority in the country. While the Shia-Sunni divide in Iraq is not very stark (estimated to be a 60-40 divide, with Shias being in majority), it has been at the heart of the political volatility in the country. Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim was accused of victimizing the Shias, and after the US installed the Maliki government in the country, the reverse became the norm and continues to this day.
Support
Iran: After the fall of Saddam Hussein Iraq and Iran have become close partners. Iran has helped Iraq with substantial aid in its reconstruction efforts after the US withdrew from the country. US withdrawal and its reluctance to get involved in the fight against ISIS has helped Iran expand its sphere of influence in the country.
Opposition
ISIS: This violent terrorist group that has declared a worldwide Islamic Caliphate is largely seen as a response to the Sunni power vacuum that was left after the fall of Saddam Hussein. While the overarching purpose of the group is to establish an Islamic state, its objective in Iraq is to wrest control from the Shias.
Yemen
Last week Saudi Arabia led a group of Gulf Arab countries into a military campaign in Yemen. While the Arabs claim that the offensive is meant to restore the fallen government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, it is an open secret that Yemen is only a pretext for Saudi Arabia’s Great Game with Iran. The fight here is between Hadi’s Sunni government and Iran-backed Shia rebels in the country called Houthis. The religious divide in Yemen is the opposite of that in Iraq. It is a 60-40 split, with the Sunnis in majority.
Support
A coalition of Arab countries: Sudan, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have conducted air strikes on Yemen. The intervention began on the request for assistance from Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government.
ISIS: While the ISIS does not openly support Yemen’s government, as it believes in the supremacy of its caliphate, a war against Houthi rebels is likely to benefit them. In the last few months ISIS has made inroads into the country and has started looking for potential recruits there.
Opposition
Iran: Iran is widely believed to be backing the Houthis who have ousted Yemen’s president. Earlier in March, the Houthis signed an agreement with Iran that will help them source oil and other goods from Iran. In March, the first commercial flight from Tehran landed in Sana’a, signalling closer communication and travel links between the two countries on the opposite ends of the Arabian peninsula.
Syrian government: It is not surprising that since Bashar al Assad is allied to Iran, and Iran supports the Houthis, the Syrian government has opposed the military strikes in Yemen. According to a report by the Syrian Arab News Agency, the Ba’ath Party in Syria has called the attack on Yemen an, “...irresponsible disregard for Arab national security and the sovereignty of an Arab country" and considers it “...a gross violation of Arab fraternal ties and international law."
Much of the trouble in these countries has to do with their ill-thought out artificial boundaries. Iraq and Syria, for example, were created from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire and criss-crossed regions where antagonistic tribes and peoples lived. In both countries, it took strongmen--al Assad and Saddam Hussein--to hold the country together. There was a progressive foil over this brute force attempt to hold these countries together. The Ba’ath party was supposedly progressive (a myth many continue to believe even today). But it was no more than a sharing and looting arrangement between different factions. As soon as the strongman disappeared (Hussein) or was weakened greatly (Bashar al Assad) the long suppressed tribal and sectarian rivalries could no longer be contained.
Global Roaming takes stock of international events and trends from a political and economic perspective.
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