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Business News/ Opinion / Will 2014 elections see Modi vs Kejriwal
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Will 2014 elections see Modi vs Kejriwal

If recent developments are any indication, as we move closer to the polls, Kejriwal is likely to sharpen his attack on Narendra Modi

What could work for Modi is that public opinion at large is in his favour. Also, the BJP has a large organizational strength that will quickly come into play in order to tackle the challenge. Photo: MintPremium
What could work for Modi is that public opinion at large is in his favour. Also, the BJP has a large organizational strength that will quickly come into play in order to tackle the challenge. Photo: Mint

Arvind Kejriwal on Friday suddenly decided to meet Gujarat chief minister and the prime ministerial (PM) candidate of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Narendra Modi on developmental issues in the state without any prior notice. He was rightly stopped by the Gujarat police on his way.

For Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the development issues in Gujarat are only a means and not an end in itself. The former Delhi chief minister is now directly challenging the BJP’s PM candidate. What was supposed to be a Rahul Gandhi vs Modi election is now unexpectedly becoming a Modi vs Kejriwal battle.

Interestingly, so far, Modi has avoided responding to questions raised by Kejriwal, but will he be able to do this for long? If recent developments are any indication, as we move closer to the polling, Kejriwal and party is likely to sharpen their attack on the BJP’s PM candidate.

In fact, according to reports, Kejriwal could directly challenge Modi by contesting against him in the upcoming election if the later decides to contest from outside Gujarat. In the 2013 Delhi assembly election, Kejriwal contested and won handsomely against three-time sitting chief minister Sheila Dikshit from the New Delhi constituency.

As of now, the BJP has not named the constituency from where its prime ministerial candidate will contest in the Lok Sabha election, though there is speculation that Modi may fight from Varanasi. The constituency was represented by veteran BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi in the outgoing 15th Lok Sabha.

Clearly, the BJP stands to gain if Modi decides to contest the election from any constituency outside Gujarat. This will help him establish that he is acceptable to people outside his home state as well. If he decides so, the choice of state is likely to be Uttar Pradesh (UP). The state sends 80 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha and, theoretically, if a PM candidate is leaving his home state to contest from another state, it is likely to influence the outcome in other seats in the state as well. It is important for the BJP to do well in UP to be able get closer to forming the government.

However, things might now get a bit challenging for Modi and the BJP. This is not to suggest that Kejriwal will be able to repeat his 2013 performance of winning against another chief minister, one who is now in his fourth term, but is likely to put up a formidable challenge that the BJP will not want to ignore.

What could work for Modi is that public opinion at large is in his favour. Also, the BJP has a large organizational strength that will quickly come into play in order to tackle the challenge. What will go in favour of Kejriwal is that Modi himself will not be able to spend much time in the constituency before the election and the AAP is a master of the door-to-door campaign. Things will also depend on what the other parties decide to do in the constituency.

To be sure, Modi can always contest from his home state. In fact, technically speaking, he can choose not to contest at all and take the Rajya Sabha route if the need arises. But such a decision would affect the BJP’s chances at the national level.

Therefore, if Modi decides to contest from outside Gujarat and Kejriwal chooses to directly challenge him, it will be an interesting electoral battle to watch. To be fair, it may not be an even contest, but Kejriwal’s rise, so far, has been against all odds.

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Published: 07 Mar 2014, 04:41 PM IST
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