Caught between the dragon and the elephant
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Two large beasts cramp our geostrategic mindspace. One, China’s dragon refuses to vacate our imagination. The second one stirring about in the same space is expected to further cramp room for manoeuvrability. The current US administration, much like the Republican Party’s elephant symbol, is steamrollering global multilateral negotiations. Both these heavyweights present India with a difficult balancing act.
The first inkling of India’s expected high-wire act came from Chile last week when 11 members of the floundering Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), all founding nations barring the US, met to revive the plurilateral agreement. An added twist was China’s presence at the meeting.
It is expected that China will step into the US’ large shoes. America’s withdrawal from the TPP was seen as a parting kiss of death since its stewardship had kept negotiations alive. Having invested time, resources and political capital—especially on beyond-the-border issues like labour standards, environment rules and intellectual property laws—many developing countries are loath to let all that work go to waste.
These developments point to the likelihood of an alternative Asia-Pacific trade agreement, perhaps without the trademark TPP markers. Importantly, China was not part of the TPP, which was seen as an instrument and extension of the US’ strategic power. While it is still early to predict how it will all shape up, hopes are the new pact will be built on the back of Latin America’s four-country Pacific Alliance and South-East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
India is part of the RCEP trade and investment initiative being negotiated between 16 countries—10 countries from the Association of South-East Asian Nations (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Brunei and the Philippines) and six others with which the regional grouping has a free trade agreement (India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand). Many of these nations are also TPP members. The RCEP provides India an opportunity to stamp its strategic and economic presence across the Asia-Pacific. It also provides India an opportunity to bring multilateralism back to centre stage.
But here’s the thing. With China assuming leadership of the RCEP and the putative Asia-Pacific alliance, the world will be keenly watching the shape of the new trade and investment agreement, especially who gets to set standards and the nature of standards finalized. The TPP’s insistence on standardized labour, environment and intellectual property right (IPR) regulations (apart from a host of other issues) conflicted with notions of sovereignty.
The question now is: Will China impose similar standards?
While China has publicly endorsed World Trade Organization (WTO)-compatible trade agreements, will it cherrypick rules? India and China share an uneasy geostrategic relationship, especially in trade. India’s three-tiered tariff proposal for the RCEP has already met with disapproval and India’s push for inclusion of trade in services faces multiple headwinds.
In the other corner, the US’ browbeating at the recently concluded G20 meeting in Germany provides a glimpse of forthcoming challenges to the existing world trade order and globalization. During the drafting of the final communiqué, the US bullied all members to drop pro forma references to free trade and protectionism. Not surprisingly, all members complied, though they did grumble in private.
US President Donald Trump’s administration has repeatedly emphasized that it prefers bilateral agreements over multilateral compacts. The 2017 Trade Policy Agenda makes it official: “The overarching purpose of our trade policy…will be to expand trade in a way that is freer and fairer for all Americans…these goals can be best accomplished by focusing on bilateral negotiations rather than multilateral negotiations—and by renegotiating and revising trade agreements when our goals are not being met.”
India does not have a free trade agreement with the US and negotiations over a bilateral investment treaty between the two countries is stuck over, among other things, the investor-state dispute system. IPR laws are the other thorn in the relationship: India claims its IPR regime is compliant with the WTO’s Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights while the US insists on a WTO-plus framework. This has prompted the US to unilaterally include India in its “Priority Watch List” under Special 301.
The trade agenda outlines the future course of the bilateral: “Although existing Indian trade and regulatory policies have inhibited an even more robust trade and investment relationship, India’s economic growth and development could support significantly more US exports…In 2017, the United States will press India to make meaningful progress…on intellectual property rights, promoting investment in manufacturing, agriculture, and trade in goods and services.”
This, in short, is the dilemma. India’s geostrategic ambitions include RCEP membership but it will have to contend with China’s growing heft and increasing pressures to further reduce tariffs. India’s trade deficit with China is growing every year and shows no signs of reversing. On the other hand, India’s support for multilateralism will have to contend with the US’ insistence on bilateral treaties and a re-examination of all existing trade relations. Ironically, India enjoys a trade surplus with the US—in 2015, it touched $30 billion. India’s trade diplomats will need some deft footwork to manage these two trade partners and contradictions.
Rajrishi Singhal is a consultant and former editor of a leading business newspaper. His Twitter handle is @rajrishisinghal.
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