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Business News/ Opinion / Online-views/  Electorate has registered its discontent amid political fluidity, economic distress
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Electorate has registered its discontent amid political fluidity, economic distress

If the outcome is anything to go by, 2014 can be brutal for Congress in these four states, which account for 80% of seats where it is in direct contest with BJP

Demonizing Narendra Modi may be good for TV debates, but in the actual electoral battle, the Congress needs to show that it has a message that can appeal to the social groups that have migrated to the BJP. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/MintPremium
Demonizing Narendra Modi may be good for TV debates, but in the actual electoral battle, the Congress needs to show that it has a message that can appeal to the social groups that have migrated to the BJP. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/Mint

On Sunday, following the Congress party’s resounding rout in what has been described as the semi-final to the 2014 national polls, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader made a wisecrack: “The Congress is a Nano party in Bihar, and it has become an Innova party in Delhi (meaning its legislature party members can be accommodated in the two cars; the Nano is Tata Motors Ltd’s small car and the Innova, Toyota’s mini-van)."

Sure, the outcome is a sharp rebuke to the Congress. As the party watches the election returns, even the untrained eyes can decipher two things: a massive anti-Congress build-up taking shape and the BJP demonstrating the mastery to erode barriers—caste and other social limitations—that were once considered unsurpassable for it.

The landslide win for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan cannot but be ominous for the Congress. The outcome of the Rajasthan election is more significant as it has rendered the conventional political template irrelevant. While traditional rivals—Rajputs and Jats—came together to back the BJP, the tribals overwhelmingly broke off from the Congress to end its sway over the country’s largest state. What must be more worrying for the Congress is the fact that Muslims no longer see the Congress as a vehicle that has the electoral prowess to take on the BJP.

That Madhya Pradesh has become out of reach for the Congress is now evident after Shivraj Singh Chouhan improved on his 2008 performance. The so-called tall Madhya Pradesh leaders of the Congress cannot now claim that they have a credible profile, or support, to challenge the BJP.

The results spell trouble for the Congress as it has dented the image of the Gandhi-Nehru family as the party’s principal vote catcher. The Congress leadership, particularly vice-president Rahul Gandhi, personally micro-managed the election campaign in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

On the other hand, the BJP’s campaign spearhead Narendra Modi concentrated his attack on the in-your-face excesses of those in power at the centre and their inability to handle spiralling prices and an anaemic economy. At the campaign stump, he hit hard against what his party considers recklessly destructive economic and social agendas of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). And Modi made sure no opportunity went waste: he played every angle.

Congress leaders were under the impression that invocation of the contributions of the “First Family" and a few doles would help it overcome the image deficit. Incidentally, a sizeable section of the electorate does not even have vague memories of the family rule that ended close to three decades ago. In a changing India where the rural-urban divide is fast eroding, Rahul Gandhi persisted with a campaign that centred more on misery mongering and less on the growing aspirations of people.

In contrast, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate was successful in zealously injecting new fire into the BJP’s political message that had fallen flat with voters in the past two general elections. The results are proof that in an era of political fluidity and economic distress, the electorate is quick to register its discontent. While the electorate appears to have bought into Modi’s claim that he has the political wherewithal to ensure a different governance paradigm, the industry and stock markets displayed expectation that a BJP win could help ride out the bad times. Modi was also a polarizing figure in that he helped build the anti-Congress momentum that indirectly helped the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) pull in votes in Delhi.

The big picture of the election appears disastrous for the Congress. The four states account for almost 80% of the Lok Sabha seats where the Congress is in direct contest with the BJP. If the election outcome is anything to go by, the next Lok Sabha election can be brutal for the Congress in these places.

But Congress’ spin masters have begun invading TV studios to argue that it was local factors that led to the defeat of the Congress and that it cannot be seen as a reflection of the popularity of the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. There have also been attempts to shield the Congress leadership by putting the blame for the defeats on state-level leaders. This is, in fact, not surprising at all, since hubris and defiance have been the trademarks of the Congress; but when pitted against a formidable rival, a reality-challenged approach can prove to be fatal.

As things stand, the Congress is out of its depth both in leadership and in its ability to cobble together a strong force that can take on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Comebacks are not unknown in politics, but the party can attempt one only if it looks inwards and corrects itself. Demonizing Modi may be good for TV debates, but in the actual electoral battle, the Congress needs to show that it has a message that can appeal to the social groups that have migrated to the BJP.

P.R. Ramesh is a senior journalist.

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Published: 08 Dec 2013, 10:40 PM IST
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