BackIt’s advantage BJP, but can it win Assam?
Among five states going to polls, BJP has the best prospects in Assam
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New Delhi: If there is one state the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is most interested in, among the five which have assembly polls beginning next week, it is Assam. Reason: it is the only state where the BJP hopes to capture power. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP swept the state by winning seven out of 14 seats. The party had won just five seats in the 2011 assembly elections.
So will the BJP be able to conquer the state? Here’s a look at existing political configurations in the state.
BJP’s steady rise in Assam
BJP’s phenomenal success in 2014 Lok Sabha elections needs to be seen in the backdrop of its steadily expanding footprint in the state. From a vote share of 1.1% in 1985 assembly elections, BJP’s vote share has shown a rising trend in Assam over time. While its vote share in Lok Sabha elections has been greater than assembly elections, it was only in 2014 that the BJP became the biggest party in terms of vote share in the state. Interestingly, BJP’s rise seems to have come at the cost of Asom Gana Parishad’s (AGP) popularity, which is its junior partner in the forthcoming assembly elections.
To be sure, the BJP has never been able to translate its Lok Sabha performances in assembly elections in the state, shows a comparison of the party’s vote share in Lok Sabha and assembly elections. The main question is can the BJP break the trend this time.
In a 2014 paper published in the Economic and Political Weekly, Nani Gopal Mahanta, an associate professor of political science at Gauhati University, argued that the BJP has gradually hijacked the AGP’s principal electoral plank of “detection, deletion and deportation of foreigners" in the state and also usurped bulk of its support base.
Will the 2014 magic work again?
The break up of the 2014 Lok Sabha results by assembly segments shows that the BJP was ahead in 69 seats on its own. The halfway mark in Assam assembly is 63. The BJP has forged an alliance with the AGP and Bodoland People’s Front. If the votes of this alliance were to be added together in 2014, it would lead over its nearest rival in 75 seats.
Moreover, the BJP can also fall back on its impressive performance in the urban local body elections held in 2015. According to a 2015 EPW paper, written by Sandhya Goswami and Vikas Tripathi from Gauhati University, BJP retained its dominance in the urban local body polls by winning 360 out of the total 746 seats.
There’s one rider though: these results represent the political situation in urban areas and hence are not entirely representative of the popular mood.
Potential spoilers for the BJP
While a look at election results of 2014 Lok Sabha and 2015 local bodies show a clear advantage to the BJP, some factors might spoil the party for it.
Media reports have hinted towards discontent within the party’s ranks due to induction of outsiders at leadership levels and alliance with the AGP. This was also acknowledged in a piece written by BJP member and psephologist Devendra Kumar in Mint.
BJP’s chief minister candidate Sarbananda Sonowal was an AGP leader till 2011. Last year, the BJP also inducted an important Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma in the party. While the BJP has increased its reliance on leaders from other parties, Congress still has a lot of senior leaders from various ethnic backgrounds in the state, as was pointed out by a report in the Indian Express. This might spoil the BJP’s hopes of creating a pan-Hindu consolidation.
According to Akhil Ranjan Dutta, professor of political science at Gauhati University, although the BJP is on a much stronger footing than in previous assembly elections, it might also face some flak for non-fulfilment of promises made during the 2014 Lok Sabha campaign. The promise to grant scheduled tribe (ST) status to six tribes has not materialized so far, according to Dutta. The promise of ST status had played an important role in BJP’s good performance in the upper Assam parliamentary constituencies like Tezpur, Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur and Jorhat. The land swap agreement with Bangladesh has also angered sections of the BJP’s voter base, said Dutta. Moreover, the central government’s recent move, allowing Hindu Bangladeshi immigrants to stay in Assam, has fuelled protests in the state as the central government’s move is against the Assam Accord of 1985 (the accord states that foreigners who entered Assam after the midnight of 24 March 1971 would be detected and deported. The Accord was signed after a long-drawn anti-foreigner agitation), Dutta explained.
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