The Reserve Bank of India is to announce its monetary policy on 30 July, a good cue to look at what other central banks in the developing world are up to.
The Indonesian central bank took markets by surprise on Thursday when it raised its policy rate by 50 basis points. This was just a few hours after the Brazilian central bank also pushed up rates by 50 basis points.
Meanwhile, the interest rate swap market in South Africa suggests that traders there expect rates to go up soon. Turkish bond yields have been moving up on similar expectations. China is trying to deflate a credit bubble by squeezing the money market.
Growth is slowing in most of these countries, yet high inflation and weak currencies are raising interest rates. Nobody expects a rate cut in India right now, but given our similarities with Brazil, Turkey and South Africa, is a surprise waiting for us at the end of this month?