Under Narendra Modi, will the BJP bite the bullet?
In their new leader, Narendra Modi, BJP has found exactly the right person who can engineer an ideological shift
Two weeks ago, my column in defence of the food security law ended up crowdsourcing self-righteous middle class anger—in some instances very extreme and vituperative—from anonymous readers online. Still, this volley of indignant angst included some sane suggestions too—particularly those articulated by another anonymous person going by the moniker of “Political Scientist".
This person, reacting to my reference to the apparent political helplessness of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during the passage of the food security legislation, made out a cogent case for the party to adopt a new economic ideology. At the moment, there is little differentiating the two parties. Both support economic liberalization; though the Congress tries to play it down with its overt aam aadmi measures, something the BJP finds politically difficult to oppose.
“There are two requirements to be right of centre in politics: social conservatism and economic conservatism. The BJP has firmly committed itself to the first, while still sending mixed signals on the second. It needs to bite the bullet and commit itself to being the voice of conservatism in Indian politics, or it will always be gamed by the Congress and its minority appeasement, socialist economics," Political Scientist said. “The challenge for the BJP is that India is a poor society, and economic conservatism is a hard sell to poor people. That’s the dilemma."
That left-of-centre economics has been discredited the world over is a given. Everything from 1930s Germany, USSR, communist China, Cuba, Greece, North Korea, India, Bengal, and even France, has been a total failure. The only success stories have been market-driven capitalist economies. How will Indian politics get the left-right balance right, especially with such constraints on the right?"
Ideologically, the BJP is most comfortable with right-wing economic thinking that supports free enterprise and markets. Unfortunately for the BJP, the Congress, inspired solely by its president Sonia Gandhi, has dominated popular discourse by setting in motion an era of entitlements. Opposing it directly would be political suicide and, as a result, the BJP has often come across as helpless when such laws come up for approval.
However, the circumstances have changed and that may just work for the BJP.
First, the stranglehold of poverty has been broken. The country’s official records of the poor show the percentage has dropped to a historical low of 22%. Second, new data on the economy shows an unequivocal trend of the declining influence of Indian agriculture; not only has its share in national output dropped, it also no longer accounts for the majority (though it is still the largest) share of employment—non-farm employment is on the rise. Third, the rapid spread of urbanization (at about 33% if we include so-called rural-urban or rurban areas) and the consumer economy have stoked aspirations, which can be sustained by entitlements but not realized through them. Fourthly, there has been a crucial change of guard in the BJP.
In their new leader, Narendra Modi, the BJP has found the right person who can engineer this ideological shift. Not only is Modi the darling of Indian industry, especially since he panders to its zero-risk approach to investment by extending a plethora of investment concessions, he is rapidly filling the vacuum of leadership in the country.
Even his worst critics cannot deny Modi’s certitude and commitment to his ideological position—hallmarks of good leadership. There is no dithering and wavering about what he intends to do or wants to do. Gujarat has given him a terrific platform and he has made the best of it. Now, a section of the nation is convinced that they owe him a chance to see if he can pull it off at the national level.
If indeed the BJP does take up this challenge, it can take solace in history. In 1959, in response to Jawaharlal Nehru’s brand of socialism, the Swatantra Party was launched to project the free market perspective. The idea, though good, was premature—the political context of the country then was defined by overwhelming poverty and the compelling script of socialism. Today, however, the context has changed and an ideology of this nature has a good chance of getting traction.
If nothing, it will bring about a refreshing change in the quality of debates in Parliament and hopefully, also engender some much needed out-of-the-box thinking on economic policy. Members of the Swatantra Party demonstrated courage to go against the popular grain of thought in the 1960s and 1970s—and the quality of debates from that era reflected this refreshingly different thinking.
Several decades on, India may be ready for such ideas. Will the BJP bite the bullet?.
Anil Padmanabhan is deputy managing editor of Mint and writes every week on the intersection of politics and economics. Comments are welcome at capitalcalculus@livemint.com
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