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Business News/ Opinion / The curious case of Indian democracy
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The curious case of Indian democracy

The coming general election will be far more polarizing than recent ones

Illustration: Jayachandran/MintPremium
Illustration: Jayachandran/Mint

Indian elections are noisy festivals of democracy. The country will soon experience a month long celebration, from 7 April to 12 May, when elections to the 16th Lok Sabha will be held. The Election Commission announced these dates on Wednesday and highlighted the elaborate preparations it has set in motion to conduct polling.

India is once again preparing to vote at a time when political unrest has brought countries as diverse as Thailand and Venezuela to a standstill. Ukraine and Egypt are shrouded in a thick fog of political uncertainty. Russia has slipped into authoritarianism while China is far away from democracy. There is good reason to be proud of the stunning success of the Indian democratic project despite problems such as mass poverty and a complicated mix of caste, regional and religious identities.

India has held so many general elections now that the statistics are boring. But they signify an achievement that makes India stand out in the world. For example, the number of voters—815 million—in the coming election will be 2.5 times those in the world’s most powerful democracy—the US—and close to six times those in the largest authoritarian state. The task of running such an election with minimal glitches is impressive in itself.

Democracy has been an excellent outlet for political aspirations in recent decades, as is evident in the rise of newer parties that represent the middle and lower caste. Politics has traditionally been more about such political aspirations rather than economic aspirations. The coming election will be a test of whether economic aspirations will—as many suspect—now become more important in voting decisions.

The staggering of elections over nine phases across India, and specifically in six phases over Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar—the two most difficult states to govern in the country—offer a note of caution. India may justifiably celebrate democracy but it is almost a garrisoned democracy. The six phases needed to conduct polling in UP and Bihar are necessary to shift police and paramilitary forces from one part of these states to another just to keep order.

This is, at once, a contradiction: On the one hand, why should the renewal of democracy require armed force? On the other hand, if one were to have no armed forces in these regions, a Hobbesian free for all would be the certain result. This makes India unique. In many countries, much smaller in size and population, conflict makes it impossible to ascertain democratic political choices; in India in contrast, the overall complexion of the country is so remarkably democratic that even disturbed patches don’t affect democracy. And this is not a phenomenon limited to the election in 2014. At different times, different parts of India have been exempt from elections—Punjab, Mizoram, Assam and Jammu and Kashmir among others—but that has not led to the suspension of democracy.

So what makes elections in 2014 different?

Three things stand out. One, it will be the first time that India will see a prime minister born after 1947. This signals a generational shift in the Indian polity.

Two, for the first time, India has an insurrectionary political party—the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)—that has seen a meteoric rise in less than two years. This party—whose governance record is questionable—has adopted a Gandhian tactic of trying to mobilize citizens cutting across class, caste and religion. This makes it stand out from the two national parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), that have till now stuck to the tested methods of political mobilization.

Finally, because of changing demographic and educational trends, this is possibly the first time that Indians are raising and demanding answers to economic questions from their prospective leaders. This is a sharply polarizing factor between the Congress and the BJP. The two parties have very distinct economic outlooks. While economic issues have been raised in general elections before—for example in 1971 when Indira Gandhi promised the ending of poverty—this is perhaps the first time that two parties are pitted against each other on distinct economic platforms.

Every election is important in determining the political and economic choices that a country makes. For India, 2014 is special. Indians have tasted the fruits of high growth and prosperity. They have also seen a precipitous decline in the last five years of the United Progressive Alliance government. Other parties—both the BJP and AAP—are promising them the moon. This alone makes these elections more polarizing than those seen in recent decades. The results should be interesting.

Does increasing voter polarization bode well for the future of democracy? Tell us at views@livemint.com

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Published: 05 Mar 2014, 06:38 PM IST
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