BackNATO’s rusting spears
What NATO needs today is a comprehensive overhaul of its military doctrine
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When NATO leaders gathered recently at a summit in Wales, they met in a world with very different security challenges from what the group has seen in its 65-year history. The spectrum of threats the security organization confronts is formidable. From the original threat of a Great Power knocking on its eastern borders it has an added, and growing, list of non-state and quasi state actors to deal with. That also highlights the strange political paralysis of the group’s anchor country, the US. In an earlier age by now NATO would have dispatched troops to deter Russia. Instead it took a summit to clear some basic measures which were once the preserve of mere military commanders.
The threats
NATO’s outgoing secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussenreminded members, “Allies face a security environment which is more unpredictable than ever, including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, violent extremism in the Middle East and instability in North Africa... In these turbulent times NATO must be prepared to undertake the full range of missions and to defend Allies against the full range of threats."
Compare Rasmussen’s words to this: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all...they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them...will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."
These are the words of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which is Nato’s founding pact.
Interestingly, none of the threats Rasmussen mentions are conventional, direct attacks against Europe or North America imagined under Article 5.
Since the US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, in addition to its original enemy no. 1 Russia, NATO has increasingly had to deal with insurgency and terrorism. What adds to the churn is the repeated changes in threats. For almost two decades since 1991, Russia was not really a threat. It was only with the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 that made NATO leaders sit up. Before they could fully understand what Russia was doing, the Middle East exploded.
Threats to international stability are brewing in Syria, Iraq, Israel-Palestine and Libya. In each of these cases NATO, led by the US, has either not gone beyond spouting rhetoric condemning violence or has cautiously picked sides and not been overt in its support or attack.
The result is prolonged conflict across continents with no indication of a resolution. A lot of the indecisiveness has to do with a war-weary US led by Barack Obama who seems to have liberal delusions about world peace. The leader of the free world is expected to be putting out fires rather than standing by as countries go up in flames. If Obama doesn’t take the initiative, NATO will not act independently.
Countermeasures
Some belated steps are being taken now. NATO has agreed to create a new spearhead force that will have many thousands of quickly deployable soldiers. This is in response to the virtual state of panic in NATO’s northwestern flank. The Baltic countries and Poland--traditional victims of Russian imperialism--want as many troops as NATO can spare.
NATO did have a rapid deployment force but that has proved to be near useless tool after decades of doctrinal decay and peace.
The group’s new Readiness Action Plan will brush up military plans and take practical steps necessary for security in the East.
What NATO needs today is a comprehensive overhaul of its military doctrine. The threats it faces are no longer localized. Unlike the past when threats in one area could be isolated, this is no longer possible. What began in Syria as an Islamist rebellion is now fast turning into an entity that controls territory and fathers revenue. The Islamic State (IS) is a new kind of organization that is neither a non-state actor nor a full state. How does one respond to such a threat?
The IS along with a militarily assertive Russia and a panoply of terrorist organizations will stretch NATO’s abilities to the extreme. It can reinvent itself militarily. It needs some political muscle now.
Global Roaming runs every Tuesday to take stock of international events and trends from a political and economic perspective.
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