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Business News/ Opinion / Will the AAP effect benefit BJP in the Lok Sabha elections or hurt it?
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Will the AAP effect benefit BJP in the Lok Sabha elections or hurt it?

One-third of Arvind Kejriwal's supporters wanted to see Narendra Modi as PM, reveals an oft-cited internal survey of AAP

There are two views on this. While some analysts believe that the AAP being in the fray will aid the BJP, others hold that it would actually hurt the saffron party. Photo: HTPremium
There are two views on this. While some analysts believe that the AAP being in the fray will aid the BJP, others hold that it would actually hurt the saffron party. Photo: HT

That the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) stint in government was not going to last its term was a foregone conclusion. Even if Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal had concentrated purely on governance, doing nothing to precipitate a make-or-break confrontation with the opposition parties in the assembly, there was little chance of his government lasting more than six months, as the Congress was expected to withdraw its support after the Lok Sabha elections due by May.

But Kejriwal, as has been widely noted, is a man in a hurry. And rather than wait for things to happen to him, he believes in making things happen. If he was going to have only a limited time in government, then why shouldn’t he, rather than the opposition, decide when his stint as chief minister must end? By giving up power after 49 days, ostensibly over the tabling of the Jan Lokpal bill in the assembly, Kejriwal has made a virtue out of necessity with the aim of marshalling his limited resources toward the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, which he sees as a big platform that he can use to leapfrog onto the national stage.

The AAP has already released its first candidates list of 20 names, which includes the likes of banker Meera Sanyal and social activist Medha Patkar. Its campaign strategy, in line with its core platform of anti-corruption, is to put up clean and credible candidates in the constituencies of politicians tainted by corruption allegations. The strategic focus, again, in keeping with its Delhi track record and logistical limitations, would be in urban areas. Which brings us to what is perhaps the single most fascinating question of the Lok Sabha polls: how will the AAP effect play out on the fortunes of the two biggest parties, the BJP and the Congress?

Given that every single opinion poll without exception, as well as the recently concluded round of assembly polls, point to a severe slump for the Congress, we can justifiably simplify the question further to: how will the AAP effect play out for the BJP?

There are two views on this. While some analysts believe that the AAP being in the fray will aid the BJP, others hold that it would actually hurt the saffron party. The former cite the instance of the Delhi assembly polls where the AAP carved its vote share more from the erstwhile support base and constituencies of the Congress and the BSP than that of the BJP. They further point to the AAP’s pro-poor populism, its anti-communal stance, and stringent anti-corruption agenda as epitomized by its obsessive pursuit of the Jan Lokpal bill, all of which, by promising all the good things of the Congress but without its alleged duplicity and corruption, could, if its campaign gains traction, end up splitting the secular vote so that the BJP gains in a first-past-the-post system. Plus, there is also the oft-cited internal survey of the AAP which revealed that one-third of the AAP’s own supporters wanted to see Narendra Modi as prime minister. So it would appear that there is a strong case to believe that the BJP would only gain from the AAP effect.

But those who argue that the AAP would undermine the BJP’s chances point to the fact that both the parties are targeting the same constituency: the urban voter, especially the urban voter who wants the United Progressive Alliance out. If a sizeable chunk of the anti-Congress vote gets split between the BJP and the AAP, then either the Congress or any of the regional or putative Third Front parties might be the beneficiaries, while the BJP stands to lose. This is also presumably the logic of the AAP’s official poll slogan of being an alternative (to the Congress or any other ruling party) instead of being a substitute—a reference to the BJP at the national level, and to any other established party at the state level.

In such a scenario, the BJP would also lose in another way. Assuming that the Congress is unlikely to be in a position to form a government, and the BJP is likely to come close, every seat won by the AAP will make it that much more difficult for the BJP to make up the numbers needed for a simple majority in Parliament since there is no way the AAP—going by its proclamations—would extend support to an NDA government.

Finally, there is another factor that may play a role, though it is impossible to quantify or predict its effect: the stability quotient. Between the BJP and the AAP, it is a given that the AAP is unlikely to come anywhere close to being in a position to form a government at the Centre—with or without support from other parties. Considering its self-proclaimed allergy to pre- and post-poll alliances, there is no way an AAP enthusiast can hope to vote in an AAP government. If we take into account the Delhi precedent, and assume that the AAP voter’s second choice is more likely to be the BJP rather than the Congress, and if such a stability-conscious AAP voter decides that for the national stage, she would cast her vote in a manner that is more likely to yield a stable majority rather than a hung Parliament with the single largest party unable to cobble together a simple majority—an eventuality that is more likely the more successful the AAP becomes in terms of seats won (as opposed to votes shares achieved)—then all such putative AAP votes could go to the BJP.

What is likely, though, is that both may happen: the BJP could gain in some places, subject to constituency-specific variables such as the demographic profile of the voters, the stature of the candidates in fray, pre-poll alliances, etc., while its performance might take a hit in others. But only a cumulative post-facto analysis can establish conclusively whether the overall impact worked in favour of the BJP or against it. But what is interesting is that the BJP does not have the luxury of waiting until then—it has to fine tune its strategy by making the one or the other assumption about the AAP effect.

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Published: 19 Feb 2014, 11:35 AM IST
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