BackBJP win reflects intensity of anti-incumbency
Even if one-tenth of the expectations of the voters are met, the BJP will have a great chance of winning again
Premium
The results of the assembly elections in Maharashtra have confirmed the trend of the exit polls. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged as the single largest party, but not with a clear majority. This has already led to hectic activity for government formation. It will be clear in a few days which parties come together to form the next government or whether the state is heading towards President’s Rule.
A few quick observations may be made to reflect upon the results of this election. The BJP-Shiv Sena mahayuti (grand coalition) had established leads in 233 of the 288 assembly segments at the time of Lok Sabha polls held this summer.
In the assembly election, the combined seats of the two parties have remained well below 200, which indicates that the breaking up of the alliance has adversely affected the two parties. On the other hand, the Congress and the NCP, too, fought the elections separately this time, and their combined number did not even cross 90. Thus, in the four-cornered contest, the Congress and the NCP have taken a bigger beating. It was being argued before elections that in Maharashtra, among both alliances, the national party and the regional party competed for superiority within the alliance. Post-elections, while the equation is not so clearly settled between the Congress and the NCP, the BJP has decisively emerged the “Big Brother" vis-à-vis the Shiv Sena.
Shiv Sena is now the second largest party in the assembly, pushing the Congress to the third position. If the BJP forms the government without taking support from the Shiv Sena, the Congress will not even have for itself the position of the leader of opposition. This is very similar to the trend in the Haryana assembly elections conducted simultaneously with Maharashtra. In Haryana, the BJP has won a clear majority and its erstwhile alliance partner, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), has become the second largest party, pushing the Congress to the third position. It appears as if the real contest was between the BJP and its erstwhile alliance partners in both states, and not between the BJP and the Congress. This reflects the nature and intensity of anti-incumbency against the Congress—both at the level of the central government and the state government. But a more significant implication is the shrinking of the space of the social and ideational factors for which the Congress stands. Whether the Shiv Sena joins hands again with the BJP to form the government or prefers to sit in opposition, the non-Congress socio-ideational elements would occupy maximum space in the Maharashtra assembly.
The Lok Sabha elections had caused major upsets for the Congress as a number of ministers in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government were defeated in the election. In Maharashtra, there are not many upsets, as the former chief minister and many of his ministers have been elected back to the assembly. There are a few big upsets, though. Narayan Rane, the campaign chief of the Congress party and an eternal contestant for the chief minister’s post, has been defeated. In Mumbai, Sachin Ahir (a minister from the NCP) and in Navi Mumbai, Ganesh Naik (a minister from the NCP) have been defeated. Harshavardhan Patil of the Congress, too, has tasted defeat. Perhaps, the biggest loser of this election has been the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). It is nearly decimated from the assembly with many of its important leaders in Mumbai and Nashik being defeated. The surprise gainer has been the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which has won a few seats in Marathwada, especially in Nanded, but its most significant inroad is in the Byculla assembly in Mumbai. There will be a temptation to explain the rise of the AIMIM as a reaction to the BJP’s politics of Hindu consolidation. But one would rather wait to understand the phenomenon better.
The critics of the BJP often brand it as a party of the urban middle-class voters. Contrary to this perception, in Maharashtra, the traditional forte of the BJP had been Vidarbha—the most rural region of the fastest urbanizing state of India. In this election, the BJP has succeeded in expanding its seats well beyond Vidarbha and has emerged as the largest party in all regions of Maharashtra, except in Konkan. In fact, for the first time, the party has been preferred by urban voters in the state. It has taken more seats than the Shiv Sena in Mumbai city—supposed to be the traditional bastion of the Sena. In Pune, the BJP has won seven out of eight seats. In Thane district, it has taken more seats than both the NCP and the Shiv Sena, which have traditionally fought with each other for domination. This support can be explained by the dismal record of the Congress-NCP government in the past 15 years, especially in urban areas. The two parties never had any vision for urban areas. Neither did they implement any important scheme that would improve progressively deteriorating urban infrastructure, nor did they have any plan to create better amenities in the ever increasing number of census towns in Maharashtra. The vote for the BJP from the urban areas reflects the anger against this.
Poised to form the next government in Maharashtra, the BJP will have a huge challenge. The electoral victory comes with a burden of expectations. It will have to walk the tight rope of improving the state of farmers in Vidarbha and that of the decaying cities in Maharashtra simultaneously. The BJP will have to perform on multiple fronts. Even if one-tenth of the expectations of the voters are met, the party will have a great chance of winning again.
The writer is a professor of politics and international relations, University of Mumbai.
Unlock a world of Benefits! From insightful newsletters to real-time stock tracking, breaking news and a personalized newsfeed – it's all here, just a click away! Login Now!
