The greatest spectacle in world cricket (despite the advent of Twenty20) is set to take the field later this week. Which team will win it this time?
Predicting sporting events is always fraught with doubts. That’s especially so in a game like cricket, where so many variables come into play—from weather and pitch conditions to the players’ form to the effervescent “home advantage”.
Perhaps quantitative analysis models (conspicuous by their absence) could have seen through the haze. But if their performance during the last football world cup is any indication, then even quants don’t know whom the cup will cheer. And bookies and online betting sites are at best inadequate indicators.
All of the above were put to shame last year by Paul the octopus. But with Paul gone, the cup’s outcome is shrouded in an all-too-human uncertainty.