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Business News/ Opinion / Online-views/  Rahul Gandhi’s big political gamble
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Rahul Gandhi’s big political gamble

It is clear that Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi have gamely staked pole positions on class and aspirations respectively

In rally after rally, Gandhi unabashedly stakes his party’s claim to the entitlement regime, especially the latest addition to this portfolio, the food security law. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/ MintPremium
In rally after rally, Gandhi unabashedly stakes his party’s claim to the entitlement regime, especially the latest addition to this portfolio, the food security law. Photo: Ramesh Pathania/ Mint

Ever since the political campaign slipped into top gear, there is a discernible trend in the speeches of Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party’s lead campaigner and presumably its prime ministerial candidate. The ring of class is more than just a hint. It is actually an all-out claim that the young man is championing to shape his party’s political narrative in the 2014 general election.

In rally after rally, he unabashedly stakes his party’s claim to the entitlement regime, especially the latest addition—the food security law—to this portfolio. Both the implicit and explicit narrative is the mantra of inclusiveness, or the appeal to class (much of this message has been lost due to the bizarre bungling at the podium by Gandhi in the last two rallies.)

That’s understandable, given that this ideological position has served it admirably, first in 2004 and then later in 2009. First it helped the Congress return to power and then retain it in style by winning the largest number of seats by any single party in the coalition era. But the question to ask is whether this will be good enough to blunt the aggressive appeal to aspirations by Gandhi’s principal rival, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.

The status of this debate from the point of view of the potential voter can only be surmised at this stage, as a clear conclusion on who was right and who was wrong can only be drawn with the luxury of hindsight once the result is declared in May. But it can be said that Gandhi’s bet is riskier—the pitch in favour of class is very specific and direct, while the appeal to aspirations can be left vague as it will vary with individuals. Further complicating Gandhi’s gambit is the fact that the narrative of India has become very complex, primarily because the country’s demography can no longer be easily generalized.

Yes, you can safely say the country is overwhelmingly young—65% of the population is less than 35 years of age. The same can’t be said about class. You certainly can’t say any more whether the country is overwhelmingly poor. The latest official data reveals that poverty has dropped to a historic low of 22% in 2011-12 (bit.ly/14XwCPt). In 2004-05, when the Congress first upstaged BJP, the level of poverty was 37.2%.

While it is a fact that the poverty level has seen a marked reduction, the aggregate number conceals a rural-urban divide on poverty. The drop in poverty levels has been much sharper in urban than in rural areas; at the end of 2011-12, the Planning Commission estimates that it has dropped to 13.7% in urban areas and 25.7% in rural areas.

In 2009-10, one in three people in rural India were poor; two years later, it had dropped to one in four. Even now the level of poverty is significant in rural India and the appeal of class therefore relevant—maybe this explains why no politician opposed the passage of the food security law in Parliament. Besides, it is a fact that rural India accounts for the overwhelming number of seats in the Lok Sabha.

But once again the debate gets nuanced further. What you see is not what you get: rural India is not just rural any more, there is (to quote a term coined by urban development minister Jairam Ramesh) also rurban India, rural areas that mimic urban behaviour and in the Census are classified as Census Towns. Last year in a six-part series of life in urbanization’s grey zone (https://bit.ly/QEiHpn), Mint’s reporters had found that the younger populace was willing to break from the mould; increasingly consumer behaviour had begun to similarly foster aspirations among the rurban voter too.

I believe that the narrative of class still holds strong in rural India, but not necessarily so in urban India. So with such a heavy accent on class in his electoral message, Gandhi runs a risk with the urban audience, and this is a segment that deserted BJP in 2004 and 2009. It wouldn’t have been so if Gandhi’s government, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), had not dropped the ball on the economy.

Not only has growth decelerated in a span of a few years from the heady highs of 9% plus to less than 5%, the ruling UPA is severely culpable for its failure to generate sufficient jobs—1 million in five years ended 2009-10, when we are adding 12 million to the labour force every year—its inability to curb rampant inflation and, of course, a failure in governance. If inflation has done in the aspirations of the poor and the lower middle class, the runaway rise in interest rates has dealt a cruel blow to the middle class that is so tied into the business of EMIs (equated monthly instalments) to fund their children through college and in acquiring a home of their own.

In the final analysis, it is clear that both rivals have gamely staked pole positions on class and aspirations respectively. It will be interesting to see how the new India responds to either message.

Anil Padmanabhan is deputy managing editor of Mint and writes every week on the intersection of politics and economics. Comments are welcome at capitalcalculus@livemint.com

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Published: 27 Oct 2013, 05:54 PM IST
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