Will El Nino return in 2017?
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New Delhi: The Japanese weather forecasting agency and one of the world’s top weather-climate model body, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, have forecasted the return of the El Nino weather pattern in the second half of 2017.
“While it would certainly be unusual to have another El Niño so quickly on the back of a previous one, the last El Niño didn’t dissipate as much heat from the equatorial Pacific as the past two major ones (1982 and 1997)... I would be pretty surprised if we got a full blown East Pacific El Niño event again in 2017, but I think that another Central Pacific (aka Modoki) event is possible,” said David Zeiden, the state Climatologist for Florida, based at Florida State University, told Forbes magazine on Wednesday.
Modoki is a type of El Nino characterized by strong warming in the central equatorial Pacific rather than eastern equatorial Pacific.
EL Nino and La Nina are the atmospheric changes associated with the warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean. While El Nino is associated with the droughts in India, La Nina is associated with excess rainfall in India.
Philip Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University told Forbes that the likelihood of La Nina following a strong El Nino (like this year) is much higher than El Nino following La Nina.
The year 2015-16 witnessed a strong El Nino, which affected weather patterns around the world including the Atlantic hurricane season and the global temperature records in the 2015.
Currently, a weak La Nina is prevailing.
Though ,the Japanese weather forecasting agency gave prediction of a weak El Nino in the second half of the 2017 , but they also said that during the same time the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may set in which would neutralize the bad effect of the weak El Nino in the far away Pacific Ocean, leading to a good south west monsoon in India, this year.
Southwest monsoon in India is affected by 4-5 parameters including El Nino, La Nina and IOD.