India’s double-digit growth difficult in current global scenario: DEA secretary
Subhash Chandra Garg, economic affairs department secretary, says in 2020-21 India should be able to grow at about 8%
New Delhi: Achieving a double-digit economic growth for India in current global scenario is difficult but the country is on path to clock 8% plus expansion by 2020-21, a top finance ministry official said.
In his budget speech on 1 February, finance minister Arun Jaitley said India is firmly on course to achieving over 8% growth and becoming the world’s fifth largest economy. The country has recorded an average growth rate of 7.5% in the first three years of the Modi government.
“What we are projecting is, this year second half will have a growth higher than 7%. Next year, 7-7.5% average growth rate has been projected. “That would mean that there would be some quarters where growth might exceed 8%. So we might see some 8% plus growth quarter next fiscal," Subhash Chandra Garg, the department of economic affairs secretary (DEA) told PTI.
The secretary further said that in 2020-21 “India should" be able to grow at about 8%.
When asked by when India could move into a double digit growth trajectory, Garg said it is difficult as the growth in the global economy is not that high. Global growth is 3.5-4%, he said.
“You need to grow exports quite a lot to think of 10% (of growth). Exports growth depend on the ability of the global economy to absorb imports. “10% to my mind, is not a realistic estimate. I think 8% plus if we can grow, that could be a decent growth," he said.
The GDP growth of 6.3% in the July-September quarter of the current fiscal signalled a turnaround of the economy.
The growth had slipped to a three-year low of 5.7% in the first quarter of the current fiscal.
As per the estimates of Central Statistics Office (CSO), the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5% in the current fiscal. For 2018-19, the economy is likely to grow at 7-7.5% as per the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament last month.
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