Southwest monsoon likely to hit south Andaman Sea in next 2 days: IMD
New Delhi: Southwest monsoon is likely to hit the south Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands and parts of Bay of Bengal around 15 May, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday.
This is a timely arrival of the southwest monsoon. Under normal circumstances the southwest monsoon reaches the islands first, after which it takes a fortnight to travel to reach the Kerala coast by 1 June.
The IMD forecast was silent about the onset of the monsoon over the Kerala coast.
Last year monsoon hit the Islands around 18 May, after which it made sluggish progress towards the Indian mainland.
“We are constantly monitoring the conditions over the islands. The wind flow is strong over the area which might lead to an early arrival of Monsoon over the Andaman also” said, an IMD official.
The onset of monsoon kick-starts the sowing season for summer crops in the country. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall during this period, which irrigates more than half of India’s farm lands.
In April this year, IMD had, in its first monsoon forecast, issued that the country would see normal rainfall, and would be realizing 96% of the Long Range.
According to IMD, there was a close to a 50% probability in March that El Niño would prevail during July-September, which was reduced to around 40% in early April. As per its latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO ) forecast, the probability of the Indian Ocean Dipole is much higher now.
Indian Ocean Dipole is a condition which nullifies the effect of El Niño weather phenomenon.
El Niño is a weather condition that develops due to excessive warming of the Pacific Ocean, disrupting the south-west monsoon pattern and often leading to drought-like conditions in India.
Many international agencies like the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and US’s Climate Prediction Centre have also lowered the probability of El Niño happening during the Indian monsoon months in their May update.