New Delhi: Faced with declining world trade, India’s export growth could be as low as 3% in 2009-10, the Planning Commission said in its report to the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
“If we assume that India’s exports depend on (the) growth rate of advanced economies rather than on the growth rate of the world economy, our export growth rate in 2009 can be only 3%,” said a report on the prospects of the Indian economy in 2009-10, prepared by Commission member Kirit Parikh.
The report, which was submitted to the Prime Minister last week, said that in the best-case scenario exports would register a growth rate of 6% next fiscal.
This, however, would be much lower than the average export growth rate of 21% during 2006-07 and 2007-08.
As regards 2008-09, the Commerce Ministry data said exports grew by 13.2% during April-January.
However, as the negative trend that started in October is believed to have continued in February and March as well, the annualized export expansion may not exceed 3-4%.
The report further said that 1% decline in global output results in 4.4% fall in exports.
According to the assessment, with global output falling by 0.9% in 2009, India’s exports could further dip by four percentage points during the year.