BackA year of extreme weather conditions for India
The year that is drawing to a close was dotted by extreme weather events, posing new challenges for weather forecasting
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New Delhi: Unseasonal rains and crop damage in several states, followed by deficit rainfall and drought in nine states, topped off by a deluge in Chennai at the end of 2015.
The year that is drawing to a close was dotted by extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent. Several factors contribute to such events, posing new challenges for weather forecasting.
Unseasonal rainfall in February and March for the second year in a row damaged crops in 14 states across the country; Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Punjab were the worst hit. In August, floods caused by heavy rainfall claimed the lives of nearly 200 people and loss of property in Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Odisha, Manipur, Meghalaya and Jharkhand.
For the entire country, the June-September southwest monsoon rainfall was 14% less than normal, with 302 out of 640 districts experiencing at least a 20% shortfall.
“There is an increase in extreme weather events and reduction in the number of rainy days. These are not good signs. Every year, we are breaking records of warm temperatures. You cannot see atmosphere in silos and this is a challenge in operational forecast and more research is required," said L.S. Rathore, director general, India Meteorological Department (IMD). Rathore added that as variability in weather increases, the uncertainty of weather also increases, posing a challenge for weather forecasting.
“IMD is also working on expanding the radar network as isolated clouds over an area cannot be picked up by satellites. Radar-based Weather Research and Forecasting Model has increased forecaster accuracy for IMD," said an IMD official.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), wet extremes are projected to become more severe in many areas where mean precipitation is expected to increase, and dry extremes are projected to become more severe in areas where mean precipitation is projected to decrease. In the Asian monsoon region and other tropical areas, there will be more flooding.
This year is also the hottest on record since 1880, and the El Nino this year is the strongest in at least 50 years.
“Actually, Chennai is a historic rainfall event and although it was forecast accurately, the challenge is you didn’t see the devastation cycle. The immediate cause people are referring to is El Nino which is the strongest in 50 years. More research is required to see extreme rainfall events in El Nino years," said a scientist from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
While there is much research regarding changing patterns during the June-September southwest monsoon, not much research has been undertaken to understand the factors affecting the northeast monsoon. “Probably, time has come to explore more on the increase in extreme events during the northeast monsoon. We need more studies on the NE monsoon. Unseasonal rainfall has also been neglected," said the IITM scientist.
In 2005, flash floods took place consecutively in three major cities of India, out of which two were in October and December. Cities that suffered heavy loss of life and property due to heavy rainfall included Mumbai in July 2005, Chennai in October and December 2005 and Bengaluru in October 2005.
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