BackScientists to tap seas to track monsoon trends, evolution
Scientists from eight Indian institutes will participate in the study in partnership with10USinstitutes
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New Delhi: Scientists are conducting experiments in the seas surrounding India over the next three years to better understand the monsoon and its evolution in an attempt to develop improved rainfall prediction models.
Monsoon Mission, a project of the ministry of earth sciences, will see researchers fire off remote-guided gliders in the Bay of Bengal to understand why rainfall over India is so erratic.
They will also drill holes a kilometre deep into the bed of the Arabian Sea to study how the monsoon has evolved over 55 million years.
The project could have an important bearing on the Indian economy, as a majority of Indians earn their livelihood from agriculture.
Since most farms do not have irrigation, a good autumn harvest, which in part determines the health of the economy, depends heavily on timely monsoon rainfall.
Scientists from eight Indian institutes, including the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), will participate in the project in partnership with 10 US institutes, including the Scripps Institute of Oceanography.
The researchers will observe the Bay of Bengal in August and November to study ocean dynamics, said M. Rajeevan, senior scientist at the ministry of earth sciences.
“The Bay of Bengal is very important for the southwest monsoon, and is also very tricky to understand," Rajeevan said.
The scientists will take measurements of its salinity, which may help understand the behaviour of the monsoon, in different seasons for three years.
The observation project costing ₹ 35 crore will be carried out using ship-based and autonomous instruments, including gliders which can smoothly dive into the ocean at a speed of 4km per hour. Flux moorings, which provide fine-resolution profiles on each year-long deployment, are key instruments in this project.
The level of salinity at the near-surface level of the ocean influences how the ocean absorbs heat, which governs the system of the ocean, including processes such as mixing of different layers of the ocean.
“To figure out how the mixing of layers takes place in the Bay of Bengal is one of the key factors scientists are after to understand monsoon variability," said Shailesh Nayak, secretary at the earth sciences ministry.
The second part of the project in the Arabian Sea will involve drilling two holes in the seabed in March and May next year and retrieving two core samples through which scientists hope to gain a better understanding of the evolution of the monsoon. The ministry wants to find out more about the events that took place around 55 million years ago, when tectonic plates collided with each other, leading to the rise of the Himalayas.
“When a river travels from the hills to sea, it carries material. When they transport the sediments, it tells you what the condition was at that time," said Nayak. “If the monsoon was heavy, the sediments carried by rivers will be more, and if monsoon rainfall was less, the sediments will be less."
The first results from the Monsoon Mission project, which will be carried out by US ship Joides in 2015 and costing up to ₹ 60 crore, can be expected by October 2016. “Normally it takes 15 years to come up with something substantial to improve models," said Nayak.
“However, every year you get some incremental advantage; so you can say the models have slightly improved."
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